Joc Pederson's total bases props present one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, hitting just 30.6% overs across 62 games with a devastating -0.7 differential below the typical 2.47 line. Currently riding an active 14-game under streak, this represents a clear systematic edge for under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Pederson's total bases struggles stem from a fundamental mismatch between market expectations and his actual production profile. Averaging just 1.77 total bases against lines consistently set around 2.47, he's delivering nearly three-quarters of a base less per game than oddsmakers anticipate. This isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance driven by Pederson's feast-or-famine approach that produces either multi-hit games or complete strikeout disasters with little middle ground. The 14-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency in failing to reach inflated lines, suggesting books haven't properly adjusted to his declining power numbers and increased strikeout rate. His designated hitter role limits defensive value while exposing pure hitting weaknesses, particularly against quality pitching where his aggressive approach leads to empty at-bats. The -41.5% ROI on overs tells the complete story—this is a player whose props are consistently overvalued by a market still pricing in past performance rather than current reality.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pederson's systematic underperformance against total bases lines represents one of the most reliable edges in player props, backed by a massive sample size and persistent execution. The 14-game under streak isn't an anomaly—it's the continuation of a season-long pattern where his 1.77 average consistently falls short of 2.47+ lines. Target this prop when lines remain elevated above 2.25, as books continue overvaluing his diminished power profile.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joc Pederson's Total Bases prop record all games?
Pederson's total bases record stands at 19-43-0 over/under across 62 games, hitting just 30.6% overs. His 1.77 average falls significantly short of the typical 2.47 line, creating a -0.7 differential that represents one of the largest gaps in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joc Pederson Total Bases all games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Pederson's systematic underperformance against total bases lines, demonstrated by a 14-game under streak and -41.5% ROI on overs, represents a clear market inefficiency that shows no signs of correction.
What's Joc Pederson's average Total Bases all games?
Pederson averages 1.77 total bases per game compared to typical lines around 2.47, creating a massive -0.7 differential. This gap represents nearly three-quarters of a base per game, making his props consistently overvalued by oddsmakers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pederson's total bases unders when lines remain above 2.25, as books continue overvaluing his production. The edge is strongest in his current form, where the 14-game under streak demonstrates persistent failure to reach inflated market expectations.