Joc Pederson's home run props present a massive under opportunity with just 21.0% overs across 62 games and a devastating -60.0% ROI on over bets. His 0.21 average sits 0.32 runs below the typical 0.53 line, creating consistent value on unders with +50.9% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of a power hitter whose production has cratered in Arizona. Pederson's 0.21 home run average represents a fundamental shift from his career trajectory, suggesting either diminished bat speed, poor swing decisions, or unfavorable ballpark conditions at Chase Field. The 79.0% under rate isn't just impressive—it's historically dominant for a player still getting regular at-bats. His current 11-game under streak and three consecutive unders indicate this isn't variance but a sustained pattern. The -0.32 differential between his average and the line shows oddsmakers are still pricing him on reputation rather than current performance. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the consistency—even his longest over streak maxed out at just two games. This suggests bookmakers haven't fully adjusted to Pederson's diminished power output in the desert. The 62-game sample provides robust statistical significance, and the lack of meaningful over clusters indicates this isn't a hot-cold streaky situation but rather a player whose skills have genuinely declined. Arizona's offensive environment and Pederson's age-related power fade appear to be creating a systematic mispricing that sharp bettors can exploit.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Pederson's 79.0% under rate represents one of the most lopsided prop trends in baseball, driven by genuine skill decline rather than temporary variance. Target unders when the line sits at 0.5, as his 0.21 average provides maximum edge. The primary risk is regression to career norms, but at age 32 with clear bat speed decline, this trend has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joc Pederson's Home Runs prop record all games?
Pederson's home run prop record shows 13 overs and 49 unders across 62 games for a 21.0% over rate. This translates to a devastating -60.0% ROI on over bets while under bettors enjoyed +50.9% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joc Pederson Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Pederson's home run props with high confidence. His 79.0% under rate and 0.21 average versus 0.53 typical lines create consistent value. Target 0.5 lines for maximum edge in this systematic mispricing.
What's Joc Pederson's average Home Runs all games?
Pederson averages 0.21 home runs per game compared to typical lines around 0.53, creating a massive 0.32-run edge for under bettors. This differential represents one of baseball's most exploitable prop mismatches this season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Pederson home run unders when lines are set at 0.5, maximizing the edge from his 0.21 average. Avoid during hot weather or favorable matchups against struggling pitchers, though his consistency suggests minimal situational variance.