Jeremy Peña's home run props present one of baseball's most reliable under bets, hitting just 8.0% over rate across 112 games with a devastating -84.7% ROI on overs. His 0.08 average sits 0.4 home runs below typical lines, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Jeremy Peña's home run production represents a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and reality. His microscopic 0.08 home run average reveals a player whose power output has cratered from earlier career projections, yet oddsmakers continue setting lines around 0.5 that reflect pre-decline expectations. The 23-game under streak within this sample isn't an anomaly—it's the norm for a hitter whose swing changes, approach adjustments, or physical limitations have eliminated his over-the-fence threat. Peña's current 9-103 over/under record suggests books are slow to adjust to his new offensive profile, creating systematic value for under bettors. The -0.4 differential between his average and typical lines indicates consistent mispricing, while the +75.6% under ROI demonstrates how profitable this edge has been. This isn't a temporary slump—112 games represent a substantial sample showing Peña's true power ceiling. The complete absence of meaningful over streaks (longest is just one game) confirms this isn't variance but a fundamental shift in his offensive capabilities that the market hasn't fully recognized.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jeremy Peña's home run props offer elite under value with his 8.0% over rate and massive -0.4 line differential creating systematic mispricing. Target this play in any game situation, as his power deficiency appears permanent rather than situational. The primary risk is an outlier performance ending his under streak, but 112 games of data suggest this is his true talent level.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Peña's Home Runs prop record all games?
Jeremy Peña's home run props show a historically bad 9-103 over/under record (8.0% overs) across 112 games from May 2023 to September 2024, with devastating -84.7% ROI on over bets and profitable +75.6% returns on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Peña Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Jeremy Peña's home run props with high confidence. His 8.0% over rate and 0.08 average versus 0.52 typical lines create systematic value, supported by a current 7-game under streak and 112-game sample of power deficiency.
What's Jeremy Peña's average Home Runs all games?
Jeremy Peña averages just 0.08 home runs per game compared to typical lines around 0.52, creating a massive -0.4 differential. This gap represents one of the largest disconnects between player production and market expectations in baseball props.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Jeremy Peña's home run unders in any game situation, as his power deficiency appears universal rather than situational. With no meaningful split data showing stronger conditions, his consistent under performance makes every game a potential value opportunity.