Jeremy Peña's hits prop shows a clear under bias with just 45.5% overs across 112 games, producing a profitable +4.0% ROI on unders. His 1.09 average falls slightly short of the typical 1.12 line, creating consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a systematic mispricing in Peña's hits market, where books consistently set lines above his actual production level. His 1.09 hits per game average against a 1.12 line creates a meaningful 0.03 differential that compounds over time. The 51-61 under record isn't just noise—it represents genuine market inefficiency. Peña's profile as a defense-first shortstop who lacks elite contact skills explains this trend's persistence. His career .253 batting average and tendency toward strikeouts create natural downside pressure on hits props. The -13.1% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning against chasing the higher number, while the +4.0% under ROI demonstrates sustainable profit potential. With no significant split variations to complicate the analysis, this becomes a straightforward case of books overvaluing Peña's offensive output. The longest under streak of 8 games shows this isn't just random variance—there are extended periods where Peña consistently fails to reach inflated lines. Market psychology likely drives this mispricing, as casual bettors gravitate toward overs on recognizable players from successful teams like Houston.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 4.0% under ROI combined with Peña's consistent underperformance versus the line creates a sustainable edge. Target games where the line sits at 1.5 hits, as his 1.09 average provides maximum value. The main risk is positive regression, but Peña's contact limitations suggest this trend should persist through normal market fluctuations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Peña's Hits prop record all games?
Jeremy Peña's hits prop record across all games stands at 51-61, hitting the over just 45.5% of the time over 112 games from May 2023 through September 2024, showing a clear under bias.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Peña Hits all games?
Bet under on Jeremy Peña's hits props. The data shows a +4.0% ROI on unders versus -13.1% on overs, with his 1.09 average consistently falling short of typical 1.12 lines.
What's Jeremy Peña's average Hits all games?
Jeremy Peña averages 1.09 hits per game across all situations, which falls 0.03 hits below the typical 1.12 line, creating consistent value for under bettors over the long term.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jeremy Peña hits unders when lines are set at 1.5, maximizing the gap between his 1.09 average and the number. His defense-first profile and contact limitations make this edge most reliable.