Jarren Duran's Total Bases prop at Fenway Park presents a compelling under opportunity with just 35.5% overs hitting across 31 games. His 2.1 average falls 0.4 bases short of the typical 2.5 line, generating +23.2% ROI on unders. The current seven-game under streak reinforces this home park disadvantage.
Expert Analysis
Jarren Duran's home Total Bases struggles stem from Fenway Park's unique dimensions working against his skill set. While the Green Monster might seem hitter-friendly, Duran's speed-over-power profile doesn't capitalize on the short left field wall like pure sluggers do. His 2.1 home average versus the standard 2.5 line creates consistent value, with books potentially overadjusting for Fenway's reputation rather than Duran's specific batted ball tendencies. The 11-20 under record isn't just variance—it reflects a genuine park-player mismatch that persists because Duran's line drive, gap-to-gap approach doesn't translate to extra bases in Boston's quirky confines. The seven-game under streak highlights how Duran's contact-heavy style produces singles rather than doubles and triples at home. Books may be slow to adjust his home lines downward, creating ongoing value for sharp bettors who recognize that not every Red Sox hitter benefits equally from Fenway's dimensions.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Duran's home park clearly suppresses his Total Bases production, creating a 0.4-base edge that translates to profitable long-term betting. Target this prop when the line sits at 2.5, especially during day games when Fenway's shadows and wind patterns can further limit extra-base hits. The main risk is a hot streak breaking the current pattern, but the underlying park-player mismatch suggests continued under value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jarren Duran's Total Bases prop record home games?
Duran's Total Bases prop in home games shows an 11-20 under record (35.5% overs) across 31 games from June 2023 through September 2024, with under bets generating +23.2% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jarren Duran Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Duran's Total Bases at Fenway Park. His 2.1 home average consistently falls short of typical 2.5 lines, creating profitable long-term value with a proven 65% under hit rate.
What's Jarren Duran's average Total Bases home games?
Duran averages 2.1 Total Bases in home games, falling 0.4 bases below the standard 2.5 line. This consistent shortfall has produced profitable under betting opportunities throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Duran's Total Bases unders during home day games when available, as Fenway's conditions can further limit extra-base production. Focus on games where the line sits at 2.5 for maximum edge.