Jared Triolo's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 10.0% overs across his last 10 games with a devastating -2.6 average differential. The Pirates third baseman is averaging 0.9 total bases against a 3.5 line, creating a clear lean under with strong conviction.
Expert Analysis
Triolo's total bases struggles reflect the harsh reality of a utility player getting irregular opportunities in Pittsburgh's struggling offense. His 0.9 average against a 3.5 line represents a massive 71.4% shortfall that suggests either poor line setting or fundamental offensive limitations. The 9-1 under record isn't just variance—it's systematic underperformance that stems from limited power upside and inconsistent playing time. Triolo's role as a defensive-first player means he's often batting in the bottom third of the order, reducing his chances for multiple at-bats and extra-base opportunities. The current 4-game under streak extending from a previous 5-game stretch indicates this isn't a temporary slump but rather his baseline performance level. With Pittsburgh's offense ranking among the league's worst in key metrics, Triolo faces an uphill battle reaching inflated total bases numbers that may be set for more established players. The -80.9% ROI on overs tells the complete story—this is a player whose ceiling rarely matches the market's expectations.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Triolo's 10.0% over rate and -2.6 differential create a compelling systematic edge that shows no signs of regression. Target this prop when the line remains at 3.5 or higher, especially in games where Pittsburgh faces quality pitching. The main risk is a random multi-hit game with extra bases, but his track record suggests these are outliers rather than the norm.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jared Triolo's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Triolo has gone 1-9-0 over/under on total bases props in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% overs. He's averaging 0.9 total bases against a typical 3.5 line, creating a -2.6 differential that heavily favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jared Triolo Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Triolo's total bases with high confidence. His 9-1 under record and -2.6 average differential create a systematic edge. The 71.8% ROI on unders versus -80.9% on overs makes this a clear under play.
What's Jared Triolo's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Triolo is averaging 0.9 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the standard 3.5 line. This creates a massive 2.6 base shortfall per game, indicating the market is significantly overvaluing his offensive output.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Triolo's total bases unders when the line is 3.5 or higher, particularly against quality pitching staffs. His utility role and bottom-third batting order placement make these props most valuable in standard game conditions.