James Outman's total bases prop presents a compelling under opportunity with just 31.8% overs across 22 games. His 0.86 average sits 0.3 bases below typical lines, generating +30.2% ROI on unders. The data strongly favors betting under on Outman's total bases.
Expert Analysis
Outman's total bases struggles stem from a combination of swing-and-miss issues and inconsistent power output that creates predictable betting value. His 0.86 average against 1.18 lines reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his offensive limitations, particularly his strikeout rate which caps his floor. The 9-game under streak within this sample demonstrates how quickly Outman can go cold, while his longest over streak maxed at just 3 games. This pattern suggests a player whose power comes in short bursts rather than sustained production. The -0.3 differential between his average and typical lines is substantial in total bases betting, where margins are tight. Outman's profile fits the classic boom-or-bust outfielder who generates most value through home runs, but his inconsistent contact limits multi-base opportunities. The 68.2% under rate isn't just statistical noise—it reflects fundamental offensive limitations that books continue to overvalue. Without platoon advantages or specific matchup data to suggest improvement, Outman's total bases props remain systematically overpriced, creating sustainable betting value on the under.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 68.2% under rate combined with +30.2% ROI creates exceptional value that books haven't corrected. Outman's swing-and-miss profile and inconsistent power make 1+ total bases a challenging threshold. Target this prop in any game where the line sits at 1.5 total bases. The main risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but his 9-game under streak shows how extended his cold periods can be.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is James Outman's Total Bases prop record all games?
Outman holds a 7-15-0 record on total bases props across 22 games, hitting overs just 31.8% of the time. His under bets have generated +30.2% ROI while overs have lost -39.3%, making this one of the more lopsided prop trends available.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on James Outman Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Outman's total bases props with high confidence. The 68.2% under rate and +30.2% ROI create exceptional value. His swing-and-miss profile and inconsistent power make reaching 1+ total bases more difficult than books price.
What's James Outman's average Total Bases all games?
Outman averages 0.86 total bases per game compared to typical lines around 1.18, creating a -0.3 differential. This gap represents significant value in total bases betting where margins are typically much tighter than other prop markets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Outman's total bases unders when lines are set at 1.5, as his 0.86 average provides maximum edge. Avoid when he's in hot streaks, but his longest over streak was just 3 games compared to a 9-game under streak.