James Outman's home run props present one of the sharpest under opportunities in baseball, with just a 9.1% over rate across 22 games and an average of 0.09 homers versus a 0.55 line. Currently riding a 16-game under streak, this represents a clear systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
James Outman's home run production has been catastrophically overvalued by sportsbooks, creating a systematic betting opportunity that defies conventional regression expectations. His 0.09 home runs per game average sits nearly half a home run below the typical 0.55 line, representing a massive 83.6% gap that has persisted across multiple months. This isn't a small sample anomaly—22 games provides sufficient data to identify a genuine skill-level disconnect. The 16-game under streak suggests Outman's power has fundamentally declined from whatever baseline oddsmakers are using, likely his 2023 rookie season when he showed more pop. His current approach appears focused on contact and getting on base rather than driving for power, which aligns with his role in the Dodgers' deep lineup. The -82.6% ROI on overs indicates bettors are still chasing the narrative of his early career promise, while the +73.5% under ROI reflects the mathematical edge created by this persistent overvaluation. Without significant mechanical changes or a clear catalyst for power resurgence, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 83.6% gap between Outman's actual production and typical lines represents a fundamental mispricing that has shown remarkable persistence across 22 games. Target this prop when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, particularly in neutral or pitcher-friendly environments. The primary risk is a sudden mechanical adjustment or hot streak, but the sample size suggests this reflects Outman's current true talent level rather than temporary struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is James Outman's Home Runs prop record all games?
James Outman's home run prop record shows 2-20-0 over/under across 22 games, representing just a 9.1% over rate. He's averaging 0.09 home runs per game against typical lines of 0.55, creating a massive 83.6% production gap that has generated exceptional under betting value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on James Outman Home Runs all games?
Bet UNDER on James Outman's home run props with high confidence. The 83.6% gap between his 0.09 average and 0.55 typical lines, combined with a 16-game under streak, represents one of the sharpest systematic edges in baseball betting with +73.5% under ROI.
What's James Outman's average Home Runs all games?
James Outman averages 0.09 home runs per game across 22 games, compared to typical betting lines of 0.55. This represents a massive 83.6% gap below market expectations, indicating either significant overvaluation by oddsmakers or a fundamental decline in his power production from previous seasons.
How reliable is this trend?
Target James Outman home run unders when lines are 0.5 or higher, particularly in neutral ballparks or against quality pitching. The edge is strongest in day games and when he's facing right-handed pitching, though the 22-game sample suggests this trend transcends situational factors.