Jake Rogers presents a compelling under opportunity in home games, hitting just 26.3% overs with a brutal -49.8% ROI on the over side. His 0.84 average sits nearly a full base below typical lines, creating consistent value on unders with a current six-game streak intact.
Expert Analysis
Rogers' home struggles stem from his role as a defense-first catcher whose offensive production craters at Comerica Park. The 0.84 total bases average represents a massive 52% shortfall from standard 1.76 lines, indicating books haven't fully adjusted to his home limitations. This isn't merely poor luck—catchers often struggle offensively at home due to increased defensive responsibilities and familiarity with opposing pitchers who've scouted their tendencies extensively. The six-game under streak reflects Rogers' fundamental approach: he's prioritizing contact and situational hitting over power production in familiar surroundings. Comerica Park's dimensions favor pitchers, particularly suppressing doubles and triples that inflate total bases props. Rogers' 26.3% over rate suggests books are pricing him closer to league-average catchers rather than acknowledging his specific home park disadvantages. The -0.9 differential per game compounds rapidly over larger samples, creating systematic value. However, regression risk exists if Rogers faces weaker pitching or if his approach becomes more aggressive. The lack of split data prevents deeper matchup analysis, but the overwhelming trend suggests his home offensive profile remains consistently limited. Weather and day/night splits could provide additional edges, but the baseline home disadvantage appears structural rather than situational.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Rogers' home total bases props offer consistent value based on his 0.84 average significantly trailing typical lines. The six-game under streak and 40.7% under ROI create a sustainable edge, particularly when lines approach 1.5+ total bases. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or favorable matchups against struggling pitching, but his defensive-focused home approach should continue producing unders.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-06-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Rogers's Total Bases prop record home games?
Jake Rogers has gone 5-14 on total bases overs in home games, hitting just 26.3% with a devastating -49.8% ROI on over bets across 19 games from May 2023 through August 2024.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Rogers Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Jake Rogers total bases at home. His 0.84 average creates consistent value against typical 1.5+ lines, supported by a current six-game under streak and 40.7% under ROI.
What's Jake Rogers's average Total Bases home games?
Rogers averages 0.84 total bases in home games, sitting 0.9 bases below the typical 1.76 line. This massive 52% shortfall indicates books haven't properly adjusted for his home struggles.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Rogers total bases unders when lines reach 1.5 or higher at home games. His defensive-first approach and Comerica Park's pitcher-friendly dimensions create the most consistent value opportunities.