Jake Rogers presents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball props, hitting the under on total bases in 75% of his games with a devastating -0.6 differential from the line. With 13 overs against 38 unders across 51 games and a current 4-game under streak, this is a strong lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Jake Rogers's total bases prop represents a classic case of oddsmakers overvaluing a catcher's offensive ceiling while underestimating his limitations. The Tigers backstop averages just 1.02 total bases per game against lines consistently set at 1.62, creating a massive 0.6-base gap that translates to exceptional under value. This isn't a small sample anomaly—across 51 games spanning nearly two seasons, Rogers has demonstrated remarkable consistency in falling short of inflated expectations. The 25.5% over rate tells the story of a player whose power potential gets overpriced relative to his actual production. Catchers like Rogers face unique challenges that betting markets often ignore: the physical toll of squatting behind the plate, irregular rest patterns, and lineup positions that limit RBI opportunities. His longest under streak of 13 games highlights just how persistently he falls below market expectations. The current 4-game under streak suggests this trend remains intact entering any given matchup. While regression is always possible, Rogers's profile as a defense-first catcher with limited offensive upside makes dramatic improvement unlikely. The -51.3% ROI on overs versus +42.2% on unders creates a clear mathematical edge that sharp bettors should exploit until the market corrects.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Jake Rogers's total bases under represents solid value based on his 75% under rate and massive -0.6 differential from typical lines. The consistency of this trend across 51 games suggests sustainable edge rather than variance. Primary risk is positive regression, but Rogers's defensive-focused role and physical demands of catching make dramatic offensive improvement unlikely in the near term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Rogers's Total Bases prop record all games?
Jake Rogers has gone under his total bases prop in 38 of 51 games (75% under rate) with just 13 overs. This 13-38-0 record represents one of the most lopsided under trends among regular MLB players.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Rogers Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Jake Rogers total bases props. His 75% under rate, -0.6 average differential from the line, and +42.2% under ROI create consistent value. The trend spans 51 games with strong mathematical backing.
What's Jake Rogers's average Total Bases all games?
Jake Rogers averages 1.02 total bases per game compared to typical lines around 1.62. This -0.6 differential means he falls short of expectations by more than half a base per game consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake Rogers total bases unders consistently across all game situations. With no significant splits showing weakness in the trend, any game presents value. Current 4-game under streak suggests trend remains active.