Jake Meyers has been a total bases disaster when Houston is favored, going under in 9 of 10 games with just a 10.0% over rate. Averaging only 1.0 total bases against 2.6 lines, this represents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
Jake Meyers's total bases struggles as a favorite reveal a player who wilts under pressure when expectations are highest. The 1.0 average against 2.6 lines represents a staggering 1.6 base deficit per game, suggesting books haven't properly adjusted to his role limitations in favorable game scripts. When Houston is favored, they often build early leads, leading to conservative at-bats and earlier defensive substitutions for Meyers. His current five-game under streak demonstrates remarkable consistency in underperformance. The -80.9% ROI on overs tells the complete story - this isn't variance, it's systematic underachievement. Meyers appears to press in spots where the Astros are expected to dominate, resulting in poor plate discipline and weak contact. The 10% over rate across 10 games provides sufficient sample size to establish pattern recognition. Most concerning for over bettors is the complete absence of any meaningful hot streak - his longest over run lasted just one game. This suggests a player whose approach fundamentally breaks down when Houston enters as the better team, making him a reliable under play in these specific conditions.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Meyers's 1.0 average versus 2.6 lines when Houston is favored creates clear value on the under. The five-game under streak and 90% under rate establish a reliable pattern tied to game script dynamics. Main risk is potential lineup changes or a breakout performance, but his consistent struggles in favorable spots make the under the smart play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Jake Meyers props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Meyers's Total Bases prop record as favorite?
Jake Meyers has gone 1-9-0 over/under on his Total Bases prop when Houston is favored, hitting the over in just 10.0% of games. This represents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball props this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Meyers Total Bases as favorite?
Bet under on Jake Meyers's Total Bases when Houston is favored. His 1.0 average against 2.6 lines and current five-game under streak make this one of the most reliable under plays available.
What's Jake Meyers's average Total Bases as favorite?
Jake Meyers averages just 1.0 total bases when Houston is favored, compared to typical lines around 2.6. This 1.6 base deficit per game represents massive value on the under in these situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake Meyers Total Bases unders specifically when Houston is a significant favorite. His struggles intensify in expected blowouts where conservative at-bats and early substitutions become more likely as games progress.