Jake McCarthy's Total Bases prop in away games presents a compelling under opportunity, going 9-24-0 for just 27.3% overs with a devastating -1.1 average differential below the line. Currently riding a 10-game under streak, the data strongly favors betting the under.
Expert Analysis
Jake McCarthy's road struggles with Total Bases props stem from a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and his actual production away from Chase Field. Averaging just 1.27 Total Bases against a 2.32 line creates a massive -1.1 differential that's unsustainable for profitable over betting. The 27.3% over rate indicates systematic market overvaluation, likely driven by his speed profile creating inflated expectations for extra-base production. McCarthy's current 10-game under streak isn't just variance—it reflects his limited power profile being exposed in unfamiliar ballparks with different dimensions and backgrounds. Road environments typically favor pitchers through reduced familiarity with sight lines and atmospheric conditions, which particularly impacts contact hitters like McCarthy who rely on precision rather than raw power. The -47.9% ROI on overs versus +38.8% on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency. Without splits data showing any road improvement in specific conditions, McCarthy's Total Bases props appear consistently overpriced in away games, making this a high-confidence systematic edge rather than a temporary cold streak.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. McCarthy's 1.27 average Total Bases sits more than a full base below the typical 2.32 line, creating consistent value on unders. The 10-game streak reflects his contact-heavy approach struggling in unfamiliar road environments. Bet the under in any away game where the line exceeds 2.0, with particular confidence when facing quality pitching staffs that limit hard contact opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake McCarthy's Total Bases prop record away games?
Jake McCarthy went 9-24-0 on Total Bases overs in away games during 2024, hitting just 27.3% of his overs across 33 road contests from April through September.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake McCarthy Total Bases away games?
Bet the under on Jake McCarthy's Total Bases in away games. His 1.27 average sits well below typical lines around 2.32, creating consistent value with a 38.8% ROI on unders.
What's Jake McCarthy's average Total Bases away games?
McCarthy averages 1.27 Total Bases in away games, running 1.1 bases below the typical 2.32 line. This massive differential creates systematic value betting unders on his road props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target McCarthy's Total Bases unders in any away game where the line exceeds 2.0, especially against quality pitching staffs. His contact approach consistently underperforms market expectations on the road.