Jake McCarthy has hit the over just 50% of the time in his last 10 games, averaging 0.8 hits against a 1.2 line for a concerning -0.4 differential. With negative ROI on both sides and consistent underperformance versus the number, the data suggests leaning under.
Expert Analysis
Jake McCarthy's recent hitting performance reveals a player struggling to meet market expectations, with his 0.8 hits per game falling significantly short of the typical 1.2 line. The 50% over rate masks a more concerning trend when you examine the differential — McCarthy is averaging four-tenths of a hit below the betting line, indicating oddsmakers may be overvaluing his recent production. The negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his current form, creating potential value on the under. McCarthy's streak patterns show volatility, with his longest over streak reaching four games but countered by three-game under runs. This inconsistency, combined with the persistent underperformance against the line, suggests regression toward his lower average rather than a bounce-back to meet inflated expectations. The lack of split data prevents deeper situational analysis, but the raw numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose recent output doesn't justify the confidence reflected in typical prop lines. Without significant changes in approach or lineup position, McCarthy appears more likely to continue falling short of betting expectations than to suddenly surge past them.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. McCarthy's -0.4 differential against the line over 10 games represents consistent underperformance that the market hasn't fully recognized. The ideal conditions involve standard 1+ or 1.5 hit lines where his 0.8 average creates clear value. Main risk is positive regression if his underlying metrics suggest bad luck rather than declining skill, but the sustained underperformance makes the under the sharper side until proven otherwise.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Hits Prop Lines
Compare Jake McCarthy props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake McCarthy's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Jake McCarthy has gone 5-5-0 on his Hits over/under in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% overs. He's averaging 0.8 hits per game against typical lines around 1.2, showing consistent underperformance versus market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake McCarthy Hits last 10 games?
Lean under on Jake McCarthy's Hits props. His 0.8 average is significantly below typical 1.2 lines, creating a -0.4 differential that suggests the market hasn't adjusted to his current form. The under offers better value until he proves otherwise.
What's Jake McCarthy's average Hits last 10 games?
Jake McCarthy is averaging 0.8 hits per game over his last 10 contests, which falls 0.4 hits below the typical 1.2 betting line. This substantial gap indicates he's consistently underperforming market expectations by a meaningful margin.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake McCarthy Hits unders when lines are set at 1+ or 1.5, especially in standard game conditions. His 0.8 average creates the most value against these typical numbers, though avoid when facing particularly weak pitching matchups.