Jake Fraley has been a disaster for over bettors, going just 3-7-0 on his hits props over the last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI. Averaging only 0.9 hits against a 1.8 line creates a massive -0.9 differential that screams systematic underperformance. The under presents clear value.
Expert Analysis
Fraley's recent hitting struggles represent more than just bad luck—they signal a fundamental disconnect between his expected production and actual output. The 0.9 hits per game average against a 1.8 line reveals books haven't adjusted quickly enough to his declining form, creating a persistent edge for under bettors who've enjoyed a +33.6% ROI. This isn't a small sample fluke; when a player consistently fails to reach even half their projected total, it indicates either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or a role change limiting opportunities. The 70% under rate over 10 games shows remarkable consistency in failing to meet expectations. While regression toward the mean is always possible, Fraley's current trajectory suggests books are still overvaluing his hit potential based on earlier season performance. The fact that he's managed just two consecutive overs at any point during this stretch, with his longest under streak reaching four games, demonstrates how thoroughly his timing and contact quality have deteriorated. Until we see concrete evidence of improvement—better plate discipline, harder contact, or increased playing time—the data overwhelmingly supports continued under betting on Fraley's hit props.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Fraley's 0.9 hits per game against a 1.8 line creates an exceptional betting opportunity that the market hasn't properly corrected. The 70% under rate with +33.6% ROI over 10 games represents one of the strongest trends you'll find. Ideal conditions exist when books maintain the 1.8+ line despite clear evidence of decline. Main risk is sudden lineup changes or a hot streak breaking the pattern, but current form suggests continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Fraley's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Jake Fraley has gone 3-7-0 on his hits props over the last 10 games, hitting the over just 30% of the time. This represents a significant underperformance that has cost over bettors dearly with a -42.7% ROI during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Fraley Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Jake Fraley's hits props. His 0.9 hits per game average against a typical 1.8 line creates exceptional value for under bettors, who have earned +33.6% ROI over the last 10 games while overs have been disasters.
What's Jake Fraley's average Hits last 10 games?
Jake Fraley is averaging just 0.9 hits per game over his last 10 contests, nearly a full hit below the typical 1.8 line. This massive -0.9 differential represents one of the largest gaps between expectation and performance you'll find.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake Fraley hit unders when books maintain lines at 1.5 or higher despite his recent struggles. Late-season games often provide the best value as books are slower to adjust to declining performance when playoff implications are minimal.