Jake Cronenworth's home run production at Petco Park presents one of the most reliable under trends in baseball, with just 7 overs in 49 home games (14.3% over rate) and a massive -0.4 differential below the typical line. This extreme underperformance generates a clear lean under with high conviction.
Expert Analysis
Cronenworth's home run struggles at Petco Park reflect both ballpark suppression and his swing profile limitations. Averaging just 0.16 home runs per home game against lines typically set around 0.5, he's consistently failed to meet market expectations with devastating consistency. The 14.3% over rate across 49 games represents legitimate sample size territory, not small-sample noise. Petco Park's marine layer and expansive foul territory naturally suppress power numbers, but Cronenworth's struggles extend beyond park effects. His current six-game under streak follows a previous 10-game under run, highlighting how rarely he connects for home runs at home. The -72.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't properly adjusted to his home power deficiencies. While regression toward league averages always lurks as a threat, Cronenworth's underlying swing metrics and approach haven't shown the adjustments needed to overcome Petco's challenges. The consistency of this trend across multiple seasons suggests structural issues rather than temporary slumps. His home run production shows no meaningful uptick even in favorable conditions, making this one of the most bankable under trends available.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Cronenworth's 14.3% over rate at home represents a market inefficiency that hasn't corrected despite overwhelming evidence. The -0.4 differential below typical lines creates immediate value on every under bet. Target this prop when lines sit at 0.5 or higher, especially during day games when Petco's marine layer is most pronounced. The primary risk is random variance finally breaking through, but 49 games of consistent underperformance suggests this edge remains exploitable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Cronenworth's Home Runs prop record home games?
Cronenworth has gone over his home runs prop just 7 times in 49 home games (14.3% over rate) with a record of 7-42-0. He averages 0.16 home runs per home game, significantly below typical market lines around 0.5.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Cronenworth Home Runs home games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Cronenworth's 14.3% over rate at home creates substantial value on under bets, with the market consistently setting lines too high at Petco Park despite overwhelming historical evidence.
What's Jake Cronenworth's average Home Runs home games?
Cronenworth averages 0.16 home runs per home game, creating a massive -0.4 differential below typical lines set around 0.5. This gap represents one of the largest disparities between production and market expectations in baseball.
How reliable is this trend?
Target under bets when lines are set at 0.5 or higher, particularly during day games when Petco's marine layer is strongest. The trend shows no meaningful variation based on opponent or recent form.