Jake Cronenworth's home run props present one of the sharpest under bets in baseball, going under in 88.4% of games (10-76-0) with a devastating -77.8% ROI on overs. His 0.13 home runs per game average sits 0.4 below typical lines, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Cronenworth's home run futility represents a fundamental mismatch between perception and reality. His 0.13 home runs per game average reveals a player whose power output has cratered from his 2021 breakout season when he hit 21 home runs. The 88.4% under rate across 86 games isn't a fluke—it reflects his evolved role as a contact-first utility player who prioritizes getting on base over driving the ball. His current 11-game under streak extends what has been relentless consistency, with only two brief over streaks interrupting long stretches of under results. The -0.4 differential between his actual production and typical betting lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his diminished power profile. Cronenworth's swing has become more compact and ground-ball oriented, sacrificing the launch angle that generates home runs. His park factors at Petco Park, traditionally pitcher-friendly for power, compound this trend. The 68.7% ROI on unders demonstrates this isn't just about winning bets—it's about finding significant value. Regression seems unlikely given the sustained nature of this trend and his mechanical adjustments that prioritize contact over power.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Cronenworth's home run props offer exceptional value with an 88.4% under rate and 68.7% ROI creating a rare betting edge. His 0.13 average sits well below typical lines, reflecting a fundamental shift to contact-oriented hitting that shows no signs of reverting. The primary risk involves potential lineup changes or facing particularly weak pitching, but his mechanical adjustments make power surges increasingly unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Cronenworth's Home Runs prop record all games?
Cronenworth's home run prop record shows 10 overs and 76 unders across 86 games, an 11.6% over rate. This translates to going under in nearly 9 out of every 10 games, making it one of baseball's most reliable under trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Cronenworth Home Runs all games?
Bet under on Cronenworth's home run props with high confidence. His 88.4% under rate and 68.7% ROI on unders create exceptional value, supported by his 0.13 average that consistently falls below betting lines.
What's Jake Cronenworth's average Home Runs all games?
Cronenworth averages 0.13 home runs per game, which sits 0.4 below his typical betting line of 0.51. This significant gap between production and market expectations creates consistent value for under bettors across the sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Cronenworth home run unders consistently, as his 88.4% under rate shows little situational variance. Focus on games where lines are set at 0.5 or higher, maximizing the gap between his 0.13 average and market expectations.