Jake Burger's Total Bases prop at home presents a compelling under opportunity, with just 8 overs in 19 games (42.1%) and a devastating -0.5 differential versus the typical 1.66 line. The current seven-game under streak reinforces a clear lean under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Jake Burger's home Total Bases performance reveals a systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers, creating consistent under value. Averaging just 1.16 total bases against a 1.66 line represents a massive 30% gap that suggests either park factors or approach changes significantly impact his production at home. The -19.6% ROI on overs versus +10.5% on unders demonstrates this isn't random variance but a persistent edge. Burger's current seven-game under streak matches his season-long pattern, indicating the market hasn't properly adjusted to his home struggles. The 42.1% over rate falls well below the 52.4% break-even threshold needed for standard -110 odds. Most concerning for over bettors is the lack of any extended hot streaks, with his longest over run lasting just three games compared to multiple lengthy under stretches. This pattern suggests Burger either faces more challenging matchups at home, struggles with familiar surroundings, or benefits from a park factor that suppresses extra-base hits. Without significant lineup protection or usage changes, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Burger's home Total Bases props offer consistent under value with the market persistently overestimating his production by half a base per game. The seven-game under streak aligns with season-long data showing 58% under success rate. Primary risk involves potential lineup changes or hot streaks, but his three-game over ceiling suggests limited upside even during good stretches.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-08-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Burger's Total Bases prop record home games?
Jake Burger has hit the over on his Total Bases prop in just 8 of 19 home games (42.1%), with 11 unders. He's currently on a seven-game under streak, his longest of the season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Burger Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Jake Burger's Total Bases props at home. The data shows consistent under value with 58% success rate and positive 10.5% ROI, while overs lose money at -19.6% ROI.
What's Jake Burger's average Total Bases home games?
Jake Burger averages 1.16 total bases in home games, significantly below the typical 1.66 line. This 0.5 base differential creates substantial value for under bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake Burger Total Bases unders consistently at home, especially during his current seven-game under streak. Avoid betting during rare hot streaks, though his longest over run was just three games.