Jake Burger's total bases prop presents a strong under opportunity in away games, hitting just 38.9% overs across 18 games with a brutal -25.8% ROI for over bettors. His 1.56 average barely clears the typical 1.5 line, making this a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Burger's road struggles reveal a player whose power doesn't travel well, converting just seven overs in 18 away contests while delivering consistent value for under bettors at +16.7% ROI. The 1.56 average against a 1.5 line suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his road limitations, creating persistent value on the under. His power profile likely suffers from unfamiliar ballparks, different sight lines, and the general challenges that affect many hitters away from home. The 38.9% over rate is significantly below the 50% break-even threshold, indicating this isn't random variance but a legitimate pattern. Most concerning for over bettors is the sustainability of this trend - Burger's current longest under streak of three games shows he can go cold quickly on the road. The fact that his longest over streak is just two games further emphasizes his inconsistency away from Miami. With books still setting lines near his season average rather than his road-specific performance, sharp bettors have found a reliable edge. The sample size of 18 games provides enough data to establish confidence while avoiding the trap of small sample noise.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Burger's 38.9% over rate and +16.7% under ROI create clear value, though the small 0.06 differential between his average and the line prevents this from being a slam dunk. Target road games against quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly parks for maximum edge. Main risk is a hot streak that could quickly eat into profits given baseball's inherent variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Jake Burger props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Burger's Total Bases prop record away games?
Burger's total bases prop in away games shows a 7-11-0 over/under record (38.9% overs) across 18 games from August 2023 to June 2024, with over bettors losing money at -25.8% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Burger Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Burger's total bases in away games. The 38.9% over rate and +16.7% under ROI provide clear mathematical edge, especially when books set lines near 1.5 against his 1.56 road average.
What's Jake Burger's average Total Bases away games?
Burger averages 1.56 total bases in away games, just 0.06 above the typical 1.5 line. This minimal differential explains why overs hit only 38.9% of the time and creates consistent under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Burger's total bases unders in road games against quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly ballparks. Avoid when he's facing weak pitching or in hitter-friendly environments where variance could work against the trend.