Jake Burger's total bases prop presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40.5% overs across 37 games with a significant -0.23 differential between his 1.35 average and typical 1.58 line. The under bet shows +13.5% ROI while overs lose -22.6%, creating a sustainable edge worth targeting.
Expert Analysis
Jake Burger's total bases struggles stem from a fundamental mismatch between sportsbook expectations and his actual production profile. His 1.35 average against a 1.58 line represents a meaningful 14.6% gap that reflects deeper issues with his approach at the plate. The third baseman's swing-and-miss tendencies limit his ability to consistently make solid contact, resulting in more strikeouts and weak contact than the betting market prices in. His 40.5% over rate across 37 games isn't a small sample fluke—it represents nearly a quarter of a full season and demonstrates consistent underperformance relative to market expectations. The -22.6% ROI on overs shows bettors consistently lose money backing Burger to exceed his total bases line, while the +13.5% under ROI indicates sustainable profitability. His current three-game under streak aligns with his season-long pattern rather than suggesting imminent regression. The lack of meaningful splits data actually strengthens the under case, as it suggests Burger's limitations aren't situational but rather fundamental to his hitting profile. Sportsbooks appear slow to adjust their total bases lines downward, creating persistent value on the under that sharp bettors can exploit.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Jake Burger's total bases props offer consistent under value driven by a significant gap between his 1.35 actual average and typical 1.58 lines. The 40.5% over rate and +13.5% under ROI across 37 games creates a sustainable edge. Target this when lines remain at 1.5 or higher, though monitor for potential line adjustments as the market catches up to his production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-03-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Burger's Total Bases prop record all games?
Jake Burger's total bases record shows 15 overs and 22 unders across 37 games, hitting just 40.5% overs. He averages 1.35 total bases per game against typical lines around 1.58, creating a significant -0.23 differential that favors under bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Burger Total Bases all games?
Bet the under on Jake Burger's total bases props. His 40.5% over rate and +13.5% under ROI across 37 games creates clear value, especially when lines remain at 1.5 or higher where the gap between expectation and production is most pronounced.
What's Jake Burger's average Total Bases all games?
Jake Burger averages 1.35 total bases per game compared to typical betting lines around 1.58. This -0.23 differential represents a 14.6% gap between his actual production and market expectations, creating consistent value on under bets throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake Burger total bases unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, maximizing the gap between his 1.35 average and the betting line. Avoid when lines drop below 1.5, as this reduces the mathematical edge that drives the under's profitability.