Jake Burger's hits props have been a goldmine for under bettors, going 1-9-0 with just a 10.0% over rate across his last 10 games. Averaging only 0.3 hits against a 1.0 line creates a massive -0.7 differential that's generated +71.8% ROI on unders. This trend screams systematic fade.
Expert Analysis
Jake Burger's offensive collapse over this 10-game stretch represents one of the most exploitable prop trends in baseball. His 0.3 hits per game average against a consistent 1.0 line suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his current form or there are underlying factors suppressing his contact ability. The 7-game under streak indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained performance issue. What makes this particularly compelling is the severity of the differential - being 0.7 hits below expectation per game is enormous in baseball terms. This could stem from mechanical adjustments, opposing teams exploiting specific weaknesses, or health concerns affecting his swing. The 90% under rate over 10 games is statistically significant enough to suggest real edge, especially when combined with the strong ROI numbers. However, regression remains a constant threat with hitting props, as even struggling hitters can break out of slumps quickly. The key question is whether this represents Burger's new baseline or an extended rough patch that's due for correction.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jake Burger's hits props offer exceptional value on the under side, with a 90% success rate and +71.8% ROI providing clear mathematical edge. The 0.7 hits-per-game deficit suggests either market inefficiency or a player genuinely struggling at the plate. Target this under in neutral matchups against average pitching, avoiding elite strikeout artists who might artificially deflate the line. The primary risk is sudden offensive awakening, but the sample size and consistency suggest continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Burger's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Jake Burger has gone 1-9-0 on his hits over/under in the last 10 games, with only a 10.0% over rate. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in recent baseball, with unders hitting 90% of the time during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Burger Hits last 10 games?
Bet under on Jake Burger's hits props with high confidence. The 90% under rate, +71.8% ROI, and massive -0.7 differential between his 0.3 average and the 1.0 line create exceptional value on the under side of this market.
What's Jake Burger's average Hits last 10 games?
Jake Burger is averaging just 0.3 hits per game over his last 10 contests, a full 0.7 hits below the typical 1.0 line. This represents a 70% shortfall from market expectations and creates significant mathematical edge for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jake Burger hits unders in neutral matchups against average pitching staffs. Avoid games where elite strikeout artists might artificially lower the line, and focus on spots where the standard 1.0 hits line remains available despite his recent struggles.