Jacob Young's Total Bases prop at home presents one of the most lopsided trends in baseball, hitting under in 23 of 33 games (69.7% under rate). With an average of just 0.85 total bases against a 2.29 line, the under has delivered exceptional +33.1% ROI. This represents a strong systematic edge.
Expert Analysis
Jacob Young's home Total Bases struggles stem from a perfect storm of offensive limitations. Averaging 0.85 total bases against a 2.29 line creates a massive 1.44-base deficit that reflects fundamental skill gaps rather than temporary slumps. The 69.7% under rate across 33 games indicates this isn't variance—it's who Young is as a hitter at home. His 11-game under streak, the longest in the sample, demonstrates how consistently he fails to reach even modest expectations. The -42.1% over ROI shows how severely the market has mispriced his capabilities. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the absence of meaningful hot streaks—his longest over run was just three games. This suggests Young lacks the power or contact consistency to string together multi-base performances. The home/road split likely reflects additional pressure or comfort issues, creating an even more predictable environment for under bettors. Without significant changes to his approach or role, Young's home Total Bases props should continue offering value on the under side.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jacob Young's 69.7% under rate and +33.1% under ROI at home creates a rare systematic edge in player props. The 1.44-base average deficit against the line is too large to ignore, especially with an 11-game under streak showing recent consistency. The primary risk is a potential role change or lineup adjustment, but his fundamental hitting limitations make the under the clear play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Jacob Young props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jacob Young's Total Bases prop record home games?
Jacob Young has gone under his Total Bases prop in 23 of 33 home games (69.7% under rate) with a 10-23-0 record. This represents one of the most consistent under trends in baseball player props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jacob Young Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Jacob Young's Total Bases at home. The 69.7% under rate and +33.1% ROI provide a clear systematic edge, with Young averaging just 0.85 total bases against typical 2.29 lines.
What's Jacob Young's average Total Bases home games?
Jacob Young averages 0.85 total bases in home games, creating a massive 1.44-base deficit against the standard 2.29 line. This gap is too significant to be explained by normal variance or bad luck.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jacob Young's Total Bases under props consistently at home, regardless of matchup. The trend is so strong that specific game conditions matter less than his fundamental offensive limitations in home environments.