Jacob Young presents one of the most extreme Home Runs under trends in baseball, going 0-27-0 on overs in away games with a perfect 0.0% over rate. His complete inability to clear the 0.5 home run line on the road, averaging exactly zero homers versus a 0.54 average line, creates a compelling under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Jacob Young's road home run futility represents a mathematical anomaly that demands serious attention. Over 27 away games spanning nearly a full calendar year, Young has failed to hit a single home run, creating a -0.54 differential against his typical line. This isn't merely a cold streak — it's a fundamental limitation in his power profile when playing away from his home ballpark. The Nationals' road environments appear to completely neutralize whatever modest power Young possesses at home. His swing mechanics, approach, and physical tools simply don't translate to consistent extra-base power in foreign ballparks. The persistence of this trend across multiple months and varying conditions suggests this is a core characteristic rather than variance. While regression is always possible in baseball, Young's overall power numbers indicate he's not a natural home run hitter to begin with. The road environment appears to expose this limitation completely. The sample size of 27 games provides substantial confidence that this isn't random fluctuation but rather a measurable skill gap. Sportsbooks may be slow to adjust lines for such extreme trends, especially for lesser-known players, creating ongoing value for sharp bettors who recognize the pattern.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Jacob Young's perfect 0-for-27 record on home run overs in away games represents one of the strongest statistical edges available in player props. The combination of zero home runs hit on the road and a consistent line around 0.5 creates exceptional value. Target this prop whenever Young plays away games, particularly in pitcher-friendly ballparks. The primary risk is eventual regression, but his overall power limitations suggest this trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Jacob Young props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jacob Young's Home Runs prop record away games?
Jacob Young is 0-27-0 on Home Runs overs in away games, meaning he has never hit a home run on the road in 27 games tracked from September 2023 through August 2024, creating a perfect 0.0% over rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jacob Young Home Runs away games?
Bet UNDER on Jacob Young's Home Runs in away games with high confidence. His perfect 0-27 record and zero home runs hit on the road create exceptional value, especially with lines typically set around 0.5.
What's Jacob Young's average Home Runs away games?
Jacob Young averages exactly 0.00 home runs in away games compared to his typical line of 0.54, creating a massive -0.54 differential that heavily favors the under in every road matchup he plays.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Jacob Young's Home Runs under in any away game, particularly in pitcher-friendly ballparks or against quality pitching. His road power futility appears consistent regardless of specific matchup conditions or recent form.