Jackson Holliday's total bases prop presents a historically dominant under opportunity with a 14.3% over rate across 28 games. The rookie second baseman averages just 0.82 total bases against a 2.25 line, creating a massive -1.4 differential. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Jackson Holliday's total bases struggles stem from the brutal reality of rookie adjustment at the major league level. His 0.82 average against a 2.25 line represents one of the most significant negative differentials you'll find in player props, suggesting either severe overvaluation by oddsmakers or legitimate developmental challenges. The 15-game under streak isn't just variance—it reflects consistent performance below expectations. Holliday's contact issues and power development timeline create a perfect storm for under bettors. The sample size of 28 games provides statistical significance, while the consistency of results (86% under rate) suggests this isn't random fluctuation. Rookie hitters typically face steeper learning curves against major league pitching, particularly regarding barrel contact and situational hitting. The fact that his longest over streak reached just two games demonstrates how rarely he exceeds baseline expectations. While regression toward the mean is always possible, the underlying skills gap between current performance and line setting creates a sustainable edge. The key risk lies in potential lineup changes or extended development that could alter his approach, but the data suggests oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted to his actual output level.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Holliday's 0.82 average creates a substantial 1.4-base cushion below the typical 2.25 line, supported by an 86% under rate across meaningful sample size. The ideal condition is any standard total bases line above 2.0. Primary risk involves potential breakout performance as he develops, but current data strongly favors continued under results.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jackson Holliday's Total Bases prop record all games?
Jackson Holliday's total bases prop record shows 4 overs and 24 unders across 28 games, producing a 14.3% over rate. He's currently on a 15-game under streak with +63.6% ROI betting unders consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jackson Holliday Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Jackson Holliday's total bases props. His 0.82 average sits 1.4 bases below typical lines, with 86% under rate providing strong statistical support for continued below-expectation performance.
What's Jackson Holliday's average Total Bases all games?
Jackson Holliday averages 0.82 total bases per game compared to the standard 2.25 line. This -1.4 differential represents one of the largest negative gaps in player props, creating significant under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jackson Holliday total bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher. His consistent struggles against major league pitching make any elevated line profitable, particularly during his ongoing adjustment period.