Jackson Chourio's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30.0% overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -1.2 average differential from the 3.0 line. Currently riding a six-game under streak, the young outfielder's power surge has clearly cooled. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of a young hitter struggling to find consistent power production. Chourio's 1.8 average total bases against a 3.0 line represents a massive 40% shortfall, suggesting either the market hasn't adjusted to his recent regression or there are underlying factors suppressing his extra-base hit production. The six-game under streak isn't just variance—it indicates a fundamental shift in either his approach, opposing pitcher strategy, or simple rookie wall fatigue late in the season. What's particularly telling is the consistency of the underperformance; this isn't a case of a few outlier games skewing the data. The -42.7% ROI on overs demonstrates how punishing this trend has been for contrarian bettors trying to fade it. For a player whose total bases line sits at 3.0, averaging under 2.0 suggests he's either facing tougher competition, dealing with minor mechanical issues, or experiencing the natural learning curve adjustments that pitchers make against young hitters. The lack of recent power spikes makes this trend appear sustainable rather than due for immediate regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Chourio's sustained power drought and the market's slow adjustment create value on the under. The six-game streak shows real pattern recognition rather than random variance. Best spots are against quality pitching where his contact-over-power approach gets exposed. Main risk is a sudden breakout game that could signal the end of this cold stretch.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jackson Chourio's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Jackson Chourio has gone 3-7-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30.0% of his overs. He's averaging 1.8 total bases against a typical 3.0 line, creating a significant -1.2 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jackson Chourio Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet under on Jackson Chourio's total bases props. The sustained underperformance, six-game under streak, and -1.2 average differential create clear value. His power has demonstrably cooled, and the market hasn't fully adjusted to this regression.
What's Jackson Chourio's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Jackson Chourio is averaging 1.8 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the standard 3.0 line. This -1.2 differential represents a 40% shortfall, indicating significant underperformance relative to market expectations and creating under value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chourio total bases unders against quality starting pitching and in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His contact-heavy approach gets exposed against elite stuff, and the current six-game under streak suggests the trend has momentum heading into difficult matchups.