Jackson Chourio's Total Bases props at home present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 34.8% of overs across 23 games with an average of 1.87 versus a 2.41 line. The rookie outfielder is currently riding a four-game under streak and shows consistent underperformance at American Family Field.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a rookie struggling with the transition to home ballpark conditions. Chourio's 1.87 Total Bases average at home sits a substantial 0.54 bases below the typical 2.41 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home splits. This -22.4% differential is significant enough to generate sustainable value, particularly given the 24.5% ROI on unders. The current four-game under streak extends what has been consistent underperformance throughout his debut season. Rookie hitters often face adjustment periods with specific ballpark dimensions, lighting, and crowd noise, and American Family Field's dimensions may not suit Chourio's swing plane or approach. The 8-15 over-under record isn't a small sample fluke—it represents nearly a full month of games and shows remarkable consistency. What's particularly notable is the lack of any sustained over streaks, with his longest being just two games compared to a five-game under run. This suggests systematic issues rather than random variance. The -33.6% ROI on overs indicates the market has been slow to adjust, creating ongoing value for under bettors. Without significant mechanical changes or a dramatic shift in approach, this trend appears likely to continue through the season's remainder.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 0.54-base differential between Chourio's home average and typical lines creates consistent value, supported by a 24.5% ROI on unders. Target games where the line sits at 2.5 or higher for maximum edge. The primary risk is sample size regression, but the systematic nature of his home struggles suggests this trend has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jackson Chourio's Total Bases prop record home games?
Jackson Chourio's Total Bases prop record at home games stands at 8-15-0 over-under, hitting just 34.8% of overs. He's averaging 1.87 Total Bases per home game against typical lines around 2.41, creating a significant 0.54-base differential favoring unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jackson Chourio Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Jackson Chourio's Total Bases props at home games. The consistent 0.54-base gap between his 1.87 average and 2.41 lines, combined with a 24.5% ROI on unders, creates sustainable value that the market hasn't properly adjusted for.
What's Jackson Chourio's average Total Bases home games?
Jackson Chourio averages 1.87 Total Bases in home games, sitting 0.54 bases below the typical 2.41 line. This 22.4% underperformance relative to market expectations has been consistent across 23 home games, generating reliable value for under bettors throughout his rookie campaign.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jackson Chourio Total Bases unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher at home games. His systematic struggles at American Family Field, evidenced by the current four-game under streak, make these elevated lines particularly profitable betting opportunities.