Jackson Chourio's total bases prop shows a stark under bias with just 16 overs in 42 games (38.1%). His 1.98 average sits 0.16 bases below the typical 2.14 line, creating consistent value on unders with +18.2% ROI versus -27.3% on overs.
Expert Analysis
Chourio's total bases struggles stem from rookie growing pains and Milwaukee's patient offensive approach that doesn't maximize his speed-first skill set. The 38.1% over rate isn't just bad luck—it reflects a fundamental mismatch between his current development stage and market expectations. His 1.98 average against a 2.14 line represents a meaningful 7.5% gap that books haven't fully adjusted for. The brutal 11-game under streak earlier this season demonstrates how dramatically he can underperform when timing is off. His current 6-game under run suggests the market still overvalues his ceiling relative to his floor. The -0.16 differential is substantial for total bases props, where margins are typically razor-thin. Without meaningful splits data, we're relying on the raw performance gap, but that gap is wide enough to matter. The key concern is whether this represents sustainable edge or temporary regression that corrects as he matures. However, rookie hitters typically show more consistency issues than veterans, making these extended cold stretches part of the territory rather than flukes.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.16 average differential and 18.2% under ROI create legitimate value, especially during his current 6-game under streak. Target this prop when lines sit at 2.5 or higher, as Chourio's 1.98 average makes those numbers particularly vulnerable. Main risk is a sudden hot streak erasing months of edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jackson Chourio's Total Bases prop record all games?
Jackson Chourio's total bases record stands at 16-26-0 over/under across 42 games, hitting just 38.1% overs. His average of 1.98 total bases falls 0.16 below the typical 2.14 line, creating a meaningful performance gap.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jackson Chourio Total Bases all games?
Lean under on Jackson Chourio's total bases props. The 18.2% under ROI versus -27.3% over ROI, combined with his 1.98 average against 2.14 lines, creates sustainable value on the under side of his props.
What's Jackson Chourio's average Total Bases all games?
Jackson Chourio averages 1.98 total bases per game, sitting 0.16 bases below the typical 2.14 line. This 7.5% gap represents a significant edge in total bases markets where margins are typically much tighter.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chourio total bases unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, maximizing the gap between his 1.98 average and the number. His current 6-game under streak also suggests continued value during cold periods.