Jackson Chourio's away hits prop presents a slight under edge with 47.4% overs hitting across 19 games. His 1.26 average beats the 1.18 line by just 0.08 hits, but the under shows positive ROI while overs lose nearly 10%. Lean under on away hits props.
Expert Analysis
Chourio's away hits performance reveals a rookie struggling with road environments despite seemingly favorable numbers. While his 1.26 average appears to beat the typical 1.18 line, the 47.4% over rate tells the real story - he's failing to clear his number more often than not. The -9.6% ROI on overs versus +0.5% on unders highlights consistent line value on the under side. Road games traditionally challenge young hitters through unfamiliar pitcher scouting, hostile crowds, and disrupted routines. Chourio's inconsistency shows in his streak patterns - alternating between 3-game over and under runs suggests he lacks the steady approach needed for reliable road production. The sample size of 19 games provides meaningful data for a rookie season, and the trend appears sustainable given typical developmental patterns. His road struggles likely stem from facing better opposing pitching staffs and adjusting to varied ballpark dimensions. The betting market may be overvaluing his raw talent while underweighting the environmental factors that consistently limit his road output. This creates recurring under value, particularly when books set lines based on his overall season averages rather than road-specific performance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +0.5% ROI on unders versus -9.6% on overs creates clear value, even with the modest sample size. Target this bet when Chourio faces quality road pitching or in pitcher-friendly ballparks where his 1.26 average becomes harder to achieve. Main risk is small sample variance, but rookie road struggles typically persist throughout debut seasons.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Hits Prop Lines
Compare Jackson Chourio props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jackson Chourio's Hits prop record away games?
Jackson Chourio has gone 9-10 over/under on his hits prop in away games across 19 contests, hitting the over just 47.4% of the time. This below-average rate creates consistent value on under bets throughout his rookie road campaign.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jackson Chourio Hits away games?
Bet under on Jackson Chourio's away hits props. The under side shows positive ROI while overs lose nearly 10%, and his 47.4% over rate indicates consistent struggles meeting his number on the road.
What's Jackson Chourio's average Hits away games?
Jackson Chourio averages 1.26 hits in away games compared to typical lines around 1.18. While this 0.08 edge seems favorable, his low over percentage shows he struggles to consistently reach even modest totals on the road.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Chourio's hits unders in away games against quality pitching staffs or in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His road struggles intensify against better opponents, making under bets most profitable in challenging matchups where his thin margin for error disappears.