Hunter Goodman's total bases prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, with the line consistently overpriced at 2.75 against his 1.88 average. The under has delivered a 19.3% ROI across 16 games with a 62.5% hit rate, making this a high-conviction fade at Coors Field.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Hunter Goodman's home performance being systematically overvalued by oddsmakers. His 1.88 total bases average at Coors Field falls nearly a full base short of the standard 2.75 line, creating consistent value on the under. This isn't a small sample fluke - across 16 home games, Goodman has failed to reach 2.75 total bases in 10 contests, a 62.5% under rate that translates to profitable betting at typical -110 odds. The Coors Field factor appears to be working against Goodman rather than helping him, likely due to expanded strike zones that pitchers can exploit in the thin air. His recent form shows discipline with two consecutive unders, and his longest under streak of four games demonstrates the persistence of this trend. The -28.4% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning about backing Goodman to exceed expectations at home. While Coors Field inflates offensive numbers for many players, Goodman's profile suggests he struggles to capitalize on the hitter-friendly environment, making the under a consistent play regardless of opponent or game conditions.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Hunter Goodman's total bases under at home games offers exceptional value with a 62.5% hit rate and 19.3% ROI. The 0.87-base gap between his average and the line creates a significant edge that persists across different matchups. The main risk is a breakout performance, but his consistent struggles at Coors Field make this unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Hunter Goodman's Total Bases prop record home games?
Hunter Goodman's total bases record in home games is 6-10 over/under, meaning the under has hit 62.5% of the time. His average of 1.88 total bases falls well short of typical 2.75 lines, creating consistent value on the under across 16 games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Hunter Goodman Total Bases home games?
Bet the under on Hunter Goodman's total bases in home games. The data strongly supports this with a 62.5% hit rate and 19.3% ROI. His 1.88 average creates nearly a full base of value when lines are set at 2.75.
What's Hunter Goodman's average Total Bases home games?
Hunter Goodman averages 1.88 total bases in home games, which is 0.87 bases below the standard 2.75 line. This significant gap between his actual production and the betting line creates consistent value for under bettors at Coors Field.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Hunter Goodman's total bases under is consistently in home games, regardless of opponent. His struggles at Coors Field are persistent across different matchups, making the under valuable whenever the line is set at 2.75 or higher.