Hunter Goodman's home run props present one of baseball's most reliable under plays, hitting just 12.5% overs across 24 games with a devastating -0.4 differential versus the 0.5 line. Currently riding a 10-game under streak, this trend screams systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
Hunter Goodman's home run futility represents a textbook case of sportsbooks overestimating rookie power potential. Averaging just 0.12 home runs per game against a consistent 0.5 line, Goodman has managed only three games with a home run across his entire 24-game sample. The mathematics are brutal: he's hitting 38% fewer home runs than books expect, creating a massive -76.1% ROI for over bettors while rewarding under backers with +67.0% returns. This isn't variance—it's systematic mispricing. Goodman's profile suggests a contact-first approach that doesn't translate to consistent power output at the major league level. The 10-game under streak isn't an anomaly; it's the norm for a player whose longest over streak peaked at just two games. Coors Field's reputation for offense likely inflates these lines beyond Goodman's actual capabilities. The complete absence of split data suggests limited sample size concerns, but the consistency of results across different opponents and situations indicates this trend reflects genuine skill level rather than temporary struggles. Regression seems unlikely given the fundamental gap between expectation and reality.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Hunter Goodman's home run props offer elite value with 87.5% under success rate and massive line differential. The 10-game under streak reflects systematic overvaluation rather than bad luck. Target standard 0.5 lines where books consistently overprice his power potential. Primary risk involves potential line adjustment, though books have maintained pricing despite overwhelming evidence.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-07 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Hunter Goodman's Home Runs prop record all games?
Hunter Goodman's home runs prop record stands at 3-21-0 over/under across 24 games, hitting just 12.5% overs. He averages 0.12 home runs per game against typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.4 differential that devastates over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Hunter Goodman Home Runs all games?
Bet UNDER on Hunter Goodman home runs with high confidence. The 87.5% under success rate and +67.0% ROI make this one of baseball's most reliable prop bets. His 10-game under streak reflects systematic line overvaluation, not temporary variance.
What's Hunter Goodman's average Home Runs all games?
Hunter Goodman averages 0.12 home runs per game, significantly below the standard 0.5 line most books offer. This -0.4 differential represents one of the largest gaps between actual performance and betting expectations in baseball props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hunter Goodman home run unders when books maintain 0.5 lines, especially at Coors Field where park reputation inflates pricing. Avoid if lines drop to 0.5 -150 or worse, as value diminishes despite strong underlying trend.