Henry Davis has gone 0-10-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, posting a perfect 0.0% over rate with zero home runs against 0.5 lines. This represents a complete power drought for the Pirates catcher, creating significant value on the under with +90.9% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Henry Davis's complete absence of home run production over this 10-game stretch reflects both his natural hitting profile and situational factors working against power output. As a catcher-first prospect, Davis entered the majors with questions about his power ceiling, and this data confirms those concerns in real game action. The 0.5 line suggests oddsmakers are pricing in minimal power expectations, yet Davis hasn't cleared even this low bar once. This drought likely stems from his approach at the plate, where he's focused more on contact and getting on base rather than driving the ball with authority. Catchers also face unique physical demands that can sap power throughout a season, with the toll of squatting behind the plate affecting lower body explosion crucial for home run production. The consistency of this trend across 10 games suggests this isn't random variance but rather a reflection of Davis's current offensive capabilities. While regression toward some power production seems inevitable over a larger sample, the Pirates' offensive environment and Davis's role in the lineup may continue suppressing home run opportunities. His plate discipline and contact skills make him valuable, but power remains the missing element in his offensive profile.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Davis's complete power drought over 10 games reflects his hitting profile more than bad luck, making 0.5 home run lines consistently overpriced. The under has delivered +90.9% ROI with perfect reliability. Target this prop when Davis faces quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly ballparks where his contact-oriented approach becomes even less likely to produce power. Main risk is inevitable regression, but his profile suggests limited home run upside even when it comes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Home Runs Prop Lines
Compare Henry Davis props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Henry Davis's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Henry Davis has gone 0-10-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, meaning he's failed to hit a single home run while facing 0.5 lines. This represents a perfect 0.0% over rate with complete power drought.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Henry Davis Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Henry Davis home run props with high confidence. His 0-10-0 record and +90.9% ROI on unders shows consistent value, especially given his contact-first approach and catcher workload limiting power production.
What's Henry Davis's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Henry Davis is averaging 0.0 home runs over his last 10 games compared to 0.5 lines, creating a -0.5 differential. This massive gap between production and expectations makes under bets consistently profitable at +90.9% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Davis home run unders when he faces quality starting pitching or plays in pitcher-friendly ballparks. His contact-oriented approach becomes even less likely to produce power in challenging conditions, maximizing under value.