Harrison Bader's hits props present a compelling under opportunity, going over just 33.3% of the time across 54 games with an average of 0.74 hits against a 1.22 line. Currently riding a 13-game under streak, the data strongly favors betting under on Bader's hits props.
Expert Analysis
Harrison Bader's hits production tells a story of consistent underperformance relative to market expectations. Averaging 0.74 hits per game against a typical line of 1.22 creates a substantial -0.48 differential that has proven remarkably persistent throughout the 2024 season. The 33.3% over rate across 54 games isn't just poor—it's systematically exploitable, suggesting the market consistently overvalues Bader's contact ability. His current 13-game under streak represents the longest drought of the season, indicating this isn't random variance but a fundamental mismatch between his actual production and betting market perception. The +27.3% ROI on unders demonstrates real profit potential for disciplined bettors. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Bader's profile as a defense-first center fielder whose offensive contributions have declined with age. His approach at the plate emphasizes patience over aggression, leading to more walks than hits in many games. The lack of meaningful hot streaks—his longest over run was just 8 games—suggests limited ceiling for offensive explosion. While regression is always possible, Bader's underlying skills and role within the Mets' lineup support continued underperformance relative to inflated market lines.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Harrison Bader's hits props offer exceptional value with a 33.3% over rate and +27.3% under ROI across 54 games. The current 13-game under streak reflects his true talent level rather than temporary slump. Target unders when the line sits at 1.0 or higher, as Bader's 0.74 average creates significant margin for error. Primary risk is a sudden lineup change or hot streak, but his consistent underperformance makes this a premium fade candidate.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Harrison Bader's Hits prop record all games?
Harrison Bader went over his hits prop in just 18 of 54 games (33.3%) during the 2024 season, with 36 unders and zero pushes. His under rate of 66.7% represents one of the most reliable fade opportunities in baseball props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Harrison Bader Hits all games?
Bet under on Harrison Bader's hits props with high confidence. His 0.74 average against a 1.22 line and +27.3% under ROI across 54 games makes this a systematic profit opportunity, especially during his current 13-game under streak.
What's Harrison Bader's average Hits all games?
Harrison Bader averaged 0.74 hits per game in 2024, significantly below the typical line of 1.22 hits. This -0.48 differential represents one of the largest gaps between actual production and market expectations among regular players.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Harrison Bader under bets when the line is set at 1.0 or higher, providing maximum edge against his 0.74 average. Avoid betting during rare hot streaks, but his consistent underperformance makes most game situations profitable for under bettors.