Gunnar Henderson's home run props have been ice cold, hitting just 10.0% overs (1-9-0) across his last 10 games with a brutal -80.9% ROI on overs. The Orioles shortstop is averaging 0.1 home runs against typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.4 differential that screams systematic underperformance.
Expert Analysis
Henderson's power drought represents a stark departure from his season-long production, with the 9-game under streak indicating either mechanical issues or fatigue as Baltimore's season wound down. The 0.1 average against 0.5 lines creates a staggering 80% gap that suggests books haven't properly adjusted to his recent form. This level of sustained underperformance in power numbers typically stems from timing issues, pitch recognition struggles, or the mental weight of team performance during Baltimore's late-season fade. The consistency of the trend—nine straight unders—points to a systematic issue rather than random variance. Henderson's power has historically been his calling card, making this stretch particularly notable for its persistence. While regression toward career norms is inevitable long-term, the data suggests Henderson was pressing or dealing with underlying factors that suppressed his power output. The 71.8% ROI on unders demonstrates clear market inefficiency, though bettors must weigh whether this represents a sustainable edge or if books will aggressively adjust lines downward to account for his recent struggles.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 90% under rate and massive -0.4 differential create clear value on under bets, particularly if lines remain at standard 0.5 levels. Henderson's power outage appears systematic rather than random, suggesting continuation in the near term. Primary risk is aggressive line adjustment by sportsbooks or immediate regression if underlying mechanical issues resolve quickly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gunnar Henderson's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Henderson went 1-9-0 on home run overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of over bets. He managed only one home run total across the entire 10-game sample, creating a brutal -80.9% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gunnar Henderson Home Runs last 10 games?
Lean under on Henderson's home run props based on his 90% under rate and 0.1 average against 0.5 lines. The systematic nature of his power drought and market inefficiency create clear value on under bets.
What's Gunnar Henderson's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Henderson averaged just 0.1 home runs over his last 10 games compared to typical 0.5 lines, creating a massive -0.4 differential. This 80% gap below market expectations represents one of the largest underperformances in recent memory.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Henderson home run unders when lines remain at 0.5 or higher, especially in day games or against quality pitching. Avoid betting if books adjust lines below 0.5, as the edge disappears with proper market pricing.