Garrett Crochet's strikeout props show a perfectly balanced 5-5 record over his last 10 starts, but the underlying numbers reveal concerning regression. His 5.6 average falls half a strikeout short of the typical 6.1 line, creating systematic value on the under despite the even record.
Expert Analysis
Crochet's strikeout production has entered a concerning phase of underperformance that betting markets haven't fully adjusted to. The 5.6 average against 6.1 lines represents a meaningful gap that suggests either declining stuff or shortened outings limiting his strikeout opportunities. The perfectly even 5-5 record masks the fact that he's consistently falling short of market expectations by nearly 10% per game. This type of systematic underperformance often persists when it's driven by fundamental changes rather than random variance. The -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates the market is efficiently pricing his recent struggles, but the under still offers slight value given the negative differential. Most concerning is the lack of any hot streaks - his longest over run was just three games, suggesting his peak performances are becoming rarer. The current one-game under streak follows this pattern of inconsistency. Without velocity data or pitch mix changes, we can only observe that something has shifted in Crochet's strikeout ability. Whether it's fatigue from increased workload, opposing hitters adjusting to his repertoire, or mechanical issues, the results speak clearly. The market appears slow to fully account for this new baseline, creating a systematic edge for under bettors willing to fade the name value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The half-strikeout deficit between Crochet's recent average and typical lines creates consistent value despite the even record. Target unders when lines sit at 6+ strikeouts, particularly in road games where he might face tighter pitch counts. The main risk is a vintage Crochet performance breaking through, but his recent ceiling suggests those games are becoming exceptions rather than the rule.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Garrett Crochet's Strikeouts prop record last 10 games?
Crochet has gone 5-5 on strikeout overs in his last 10 games with a 5.6 average. While the record appears balanced, he's consistently underperforming the typical 6.1 line by half a strikeout per start.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Garrett Crochet Strikeouts last 10 games?
Lean under on Crochet's strikeout props. His recent 5.6 average consistently falls short of market lines around 6.1, creating systematic value despite the even record. Target unders when lines are 6+ strikeouts.
What's Garrett Crochet's average Strikeouts last 10 games?
Crochet is averaging 5.6 strikeouts over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 6.1. This 0.5 strikeout deficit represents meaningful underperformance that the market hasn't fully corrected for yet.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Crochet strikeout unders when lines are set at 6+ strikeouts, particularly in road games where pitch counts might be managed more conservatively. Avoid betting overs until he shows sustained improvement above his recent baseline.