Garrett Crochet's strikeout props offer modest value with an 8-6-0 over record (57.1%) and positive 9.1% ROI on overs. His 6.07 average barely exceeds the typical 6.0 line, creating thin but consistent edges. Lean over with measured expectations.
Expert Analysis
Crochet's strikeout profile reveals a pitcher operating just above market expectations, but the narrow 0.07 differential between his average and the standard line suggests books have accurately priced his ability. The 57.1% over rate indicates genuine skill in missing bats, likely driven by his transition from reliever to starter maintaining electric stuff over longer outings. His 9.1% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable value, while the brutal -18.2% under ROI shows the market consistently undervalues his strikeout ceiling. The modest sample of 14 games spans the entire 2024 season, providing legitimate trend data rather than small-sample noise. Crochet's ability to consistently exceed a 6.0 line suggests his stuff translates well to starting, though the thin margins mean variance will create natural regression periods. The current single-game under streak represents normal fluctuation rather than concerning decline. His profile fits the modern power pitcher archetype where velocity and spin rates create consistent strikeout opportunities regardless of opponent quality. The key risk lies in the narrow value margins - even slight adjustments in line movement could eliminate the edge entirely.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Crochet's 9.1% ROI on overs and consistent 57.1% hit rate create legitimate value despite thin margins. Target games where the line stays at 6.0 or drops to 5.5, as his 6.07 average provides the clearest edge at standard pricing. The main risk is line inflation above 6.5, which would eliminate the mathematical advantage entirely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 4.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 8.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-24 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-19 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-13 | OPP | 7.5 | 10.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-03-28 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Garrett Crochet's Strikeouts prop record all games?
Crochet holds an 8-6-0 record on strikeout props in all games, hitting overs 57.1% of the time across 14 games in 2024. This translates to a profitable 9.1% ROI when betting overs versus a losing -18.2% ROI on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Garrett Crochet Strikeouts all games?
Bet over on Crochet's strikeout props with measured expectations. His 9.1% ROI on overs and 57.1% hit rate create legitimate value, but only when the line stays at 6.0 or below. Avoid inflated lines above 6.5.
What's Garrett Crochet's average Strikeouts all games?
Crochet averages 6.07 strikeouts per game compared to the typical 6.0 line, creating a narrow but consistent 0.07 differential in favor of overs. This modest edge has proven sustainable across his 14-game sample in 2024.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Crochet strikeout overs when the line holds at 6.0 or drops to 5.5, maximizing the value from his 6.07 average. Avoid betting when books inflate the line above 6.5, as this eliminates the mathematical edge entirely.