Freddie Freeman's total bases props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -1.5 differential from the typical 3.0 line. This 2-8-0 record represents one of the strongest fade trends in baseball, delivering +52.7% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's total bases collapse stems from a perfect storm of declining power and contact issues that books haven't properly adjusted for. His 1.5 average against 3.0 lines reveals a fundamental disconnect between his reputation and current production. The streak data tells the story - seven consecutive unders at one point, with only isolated over performances breaking the pattern. This isn't random variance; Freeman's bat speed has visibly declined, leading to weaker contact and fewer extra-base hits. The Dodgers' playoff positioning may have influenced his approach, prioritizing health over aggressive swings. What makes this trend particularly exploitable is the market's slow adjustment - books continue setting lines based on Freeman's established reputation rather than his current form. The 20% over rate across a meaningful 10-game sample suggests systematic weakness rather than temporary slump. His longest over streak was just one game, indicating even his 'good' performances barely clear modest bars. The -61.8% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently overpriced these props have been. Freeman's age-related decline appears to be accelerating, particularly in power metrics that drive total bases accumulation.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Freeman's total bases props represent one of baseball's most reliable fade opportunities, with the market systematically overvaluing his current production. Target unders when lines sit at 2.5 or higher, especially in day games or against quality pitching where his diminished bat speed becomes more pronounced. The primary risk is a sudden power surge, but his consistent weak contact suggests this trend has staying power through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Freddie Freeman props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Freeman has gone 2-8-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% of over bets. He's averaging only 1.5 total bases against typical lines of 3.0, creating a significant -1.5 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Freeman's total bases props show a clear pattern of market overvaluation, delivering +52.7% ROI on unders while overs lose -61.8%. This represents one of baseball's most reliable fade opportunities currently available.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Freeman is averaging 1.5 total bases over his last 10 games, significantly below the typical 3.0 line set by sportsbooks. This -1.5 differential represents one of the largest gaps between player production and market expectations in current baseball.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman total bases unders when lines are 2.5 or higher, particularly in day games or against quality starting pitching. His diminished bat speed becomes more pronounced in these conditions, making weak contact and singles more likely outcomes.