Freddie Freeman's Total Bases prop at home presents a clear under opportunity, going 17-20 (45.9% overs) with a -0.2 differential from the typical 2.28 line. The consistent underperformance combined with negative over ROI of -12.3% suggests systematic line inflation in Dodger Stadium.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's home Total Bases struggles stem from Dodger Stadium's pitcher-friendly dimensions and his adjusted approach in familiar surroundings. The veteran first baseman averages just 2.08 total bases at home versus a 2.28 line, creating consistent value on unders across 37 games. This isn't random variance—Freeman's disciplined home plate approach often prioritizes getting on base over aggressive swings for extra bases. The -12.3% ROI on overs indicates books consistently overvalue his home power production, likely influenced by the Dodgers' offensive reputation and Freeman's overall solid numbers. The trend shows remarkable consistency with both longest over and under streaks capping at four games, suggesting sustainable patterns rather than extreme clustering. Freeman's current single-game under streak aligns with the broader trend, and with no concerning recent form data suggesting a dramatic shift in approach, the underlying factors driving this home underperformance remain intact. The 3.2% positive ROI on unders, while modest, demonstrates the edge available when consistently betting against inflated home lines for Freeman's total bases production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's home Total Bases consistently falls short of inflated lines, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors. Target games where the line sits at 2.5 or higher for maximum value. The primary risk is a hot streak that could temporarily inflate his numbers, but the underlying approach and ballpark factors favor continued underperformance against typical pricing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-07 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-02 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Total Bases prop record home games?
Freeman's Total Bases prop at home games shows a 17-20 record (45.9% overs), averaging 2.08 total bases against typical lines of 2.28, creating a -0.2 differential that favors under bets consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Freeman's Total Bases at home. The data shows clear value with 54.1% under rate, positive 3.2% ROI on unders, and consistent underperformance versus inflated lines in Dodger Stadium.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Total Bases home games?
Freeman averages 2.08 total bases in home games, falling 0.2 bases short of the typical 2.28 line. This consistent gap creates opportunities for under bettors across his home schedule.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman Total Bases unders when lines reach 2.5 or higher at home. The systematic overvaluation of his Dodger Stadium production creates the best value on elevated numbers rather than standard pricing.