Freddie Freeman's total bases props present a clear under opportunity, hitting the over just 41.2% of the time across 80 games with a devastating -21.2% ROI on overs. Freeman averages 1.94 total bases against a 2.36 line, creating a consistent 0.4-base edge for under bettors.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's total bases struggles stem from his evolving role in the Dodgers' loaded lineup and natural aging curve as a 34-year-old first baseman. The 1.94 average against a 2.36 line represents a significant market inefficiency, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Freeman's reduced power output since joining Los Angeles. His 41.2% over rate indicates consistent underperformance rather than random variance, likely driven by decreased home run frequency and more selective approach at the plate. The -0.4 differential is substantial in total bases betting, where margins are typically razor-thin. Freeman's profile as a high-contact, lower-power hitter in 2023-2024 creates natural resistance to exceeding inflated lines that still price him as the MVP-caliber slugger from his Atlanta days. The seven-game under streak represents his longest drought, suggesting potential regression, but the overall sample size of 80 games provides strong statistical foundation. Without split data showing dramatically different performance in specific situations, the consistency of this trend across all game contexts strengthens the under case significantly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's 1.94 average creates a meaningful edge against the typical 2.36 line, supported by 80 games of data showing consistent underperformance. The ideal bet comes when lines remain at 2.5 or higher, maximizing the statistical advantage. Main risk is positive regression after his current seven-game under streak, but the underlying factors suggest sustainable value.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Freddie Freeman props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Total Bases prop record all games?
Freeman's total bases record across all games shows 33 overs and 47 unders in 80 games, hitting the over just 41.2% of the time with a concerning -21.2% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Total Bases all games?
Bet under on Freeman's total bases props. His 1.94 average against typical 2.36 lines creates consistent value, supported by 58.8% under rate and profitable +12.2% under ROI across 80 games.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Total Bases all games?
Freeman averages 1.94 total bases across all games, falling 0.4 bases short of the standard 2.36 line. This significant differential represents one of the larger edges in total bases betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman total bases unders when lines are 2.5 or higher, maximizing the statistical edge. Avoid betting during hot streaks or in favorable hitting environments like Coors Field.