Freddie Freeman's home run production has cratered over his last 10 games, going under the 0.5 line in 9 of 10 contests with just 0.1 homers per game. This 90% under rate represents one of the most reliable trends in baseball props right now. The under is the clear play.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's power drought stems from a perfect storm of factors that rarely align this dramatically. The veteran first baseman has managed just one home run across 10 games while averaging 0.1 per contest against a standard 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.4 differential that screams systematic change rather than random variance. This isn't typical Freeman regression—he's historically been one of baseball's most consistent power threats, making this sustained drought particularly telling. The 90% under rate with a +71.8% ROI indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, yet books remain slow to adjust. Freeman's current streak of four consecutive unders follows his season-long pattern of inconsistent power, suggesting mechanical issues or fatigue rather than temporary cold streak. The sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data to identify a genuine trend, especially given Freeman's typically steady production. Most concerning for over bettors is the lack of any sustained power surge during this stretch—his longest over streak was just one game, while he's recorded a five-game under streak. This pattern suggests Freeman is pressing or dealing with timing issues that won't resolve overnight. The -80.9% over ROI reflects how dramatically this trend has punished optimistic bettors.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Freeman's 90% under rate over 10 games represents exceptional value that books haven't properly adjusted for. The 0.1 average against a 0.5 line creates a significant mathematical edge that sharp bettors are exploiting with +71.8% ROI. Target this under in all game situations until Freeman shows signs of breaking out with consecutive multi-hit games or obvious mechanical adjustments.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Home Runs prop record last 10 games?
Freeman has gone 1-9-0 over/under on his home run props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just once while going under nine times. He's averaging 0.1 home runs per game against the typical 0.5 line during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Home Runs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Freeman's home runs with high confidence. His 90% under rate over 10 games with +71.8% ROI represents one of baseball's strongest current trends. The mathematical edge is too significant to ignore.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Home Runs last 10 games?
Freeman is averaging just 0.1 home runs per game over his last 10 contests, creating a massive -0.4 differential against the standard 0.5 line. This represents his worst sustained power stretch in recent memory.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Freeman home run unders in all situations until he shows clear signs of breaking out. Target games where he's facing quality pitching or in pitcher-friendly parks to maximize the edge from this trend.