Freddie Freeman's home run props as a favorite present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 27.3% of overs across 11 games with a brutal -0.23 average differential to the standard 0.5 line. The under delivers a strong 38.8% ROI while overs hemorrhage nearly half your bankroll at -47.9%.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's home run struggles as a favorite reflect the inherent pressure and approach changes that come with being in must-win spots. When the Dodgers are favored, Freeman often shifts into a more patient, contact-oriented approach, focusing on getting on base and setting the table rather than swinging for the fences. The -0.23 differential to the 0.5 line is substantial in baseball terms, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted to this situational tendency. His longest under streak of five games demonstrates the persistence of this pattern, while the brief two-game over streak appears more like variance than sustainable trend reversal. The 72.7% under rate is remarkably consistent, indicating this isn't random but rather a fundamental shift in Freeman's approach when his team is expected to win. The veteran first baseman's baseball IQ likely drives him to prioritize situational hitting over personal power numbers when the Dodgers hold the betting advantage, making this trend both logical and sustainable.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's 72.7% under rate as a favorite creates legitimate value, especially with the significant -0.23 average differential showing books haven't caught up. Target games where the Dodgers are moderate to heavy favorites and Freeman bats in the heart of the order, where his table-setting mentality is most pronounced. Primary risk is small sample size and potential regression, but the underlying logic supports continued under performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Home Runs prop record as favorite?
Freeman's home run prop record as a favorite stands at 3-8-0 over/under across 11 games, translating to just 27.3% overs. This represents one of the more lopsided situational trends for a premier hitter of his caliber.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Home Runs as favorite?
Bet under on Freeman's home run props as a favorite. The 72.7% under rate and 38.8% ROI provide clear value, while the -47.9% over ROI shows consistent market inefficiency that hasn't been corrected.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Home Runs as favorite?
Freeman averages 0.27 home runs per game as a favorite, sitting 0.23 below the standard 0.5 line. This substantial differential indicates a meaningful shift in his approach when the Dodgers are expected to win.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman home run unders when the Dodgers are moderate to heavy favorites in regular season games. His situational approach is most pronounced when the team has clear expectations to win and he's batting in his typical cleanup spots.