Freddie Freeman's home run props present one of the most reliable under opportunities in baseball, hitting just 15 overs in 85 games for a brutal 17.6% over rate. With an average of 0.18 home runs against typical 0.5+ lines, the data strongly supports betting Freeman's home run under consistently.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's home run production has fundamentally shifted from his Atlanta days, creating a massive disconnect between market expectations and reality. The 0.18 average against 0.55 lines represents a staggering -67% gap that reflects his evolving role in the Dodgers' championship-focused lineup. At 34, Freeman has prioritized contact and situational hitting over power, evidenced by his career-low isolated power metrics. The Dodgers' deep lineup reduces pressure for Freeman to carry offensive load, allowing him to focus on getting on base for Betts, Ohtani, and other power threats behind him. His swing has become more level and gap-oriented, trading home run upside for consistency. The 12-game under streak isn't an outlier but rather typical Freeman performance, as he's posted just one over streak longer than a single game. Dodger Stadium's pitcher-friendly dimensions for left-handed hitters compound this trend, as Freeman pulls fewer balls with authority than in previous seasons. The market continues overvaluing Freeman's name recognition and past power numbers while ignoring his current hitting profile. This creates sustainable value as books struggle to adjust lines low enough to reflect his actual production. The -66.3% over ROI demonstrates how severely the market misprices Freeman's current power ceiling.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Freeman's 17.6% over rate across 85 games represents elite under value that shows no signs of regression. The 0.37-run differential between his average and typical lines creates consistent profit opportunities. Target Freeman home run unders in all situations, especially at Dodger Stadium where his pull power is further suppressed. The main risk is an unexpected hot streak, but his current approach makes multiple-game over runs highly unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Home Runs prop record all games?
Freeman's home run prop record shows 15 overs and 70 unders across 85 games, producing a 17.6% over rate. This translates to roughly one over every six games, making it one of baseball's most reliable under trends.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Home Runs all games?
Bet Freeman's home run under consistently. The 57.2% under ROI across 85 games provides clear mathematical edge, while his 0.18 average against typical 0.55 lines creates sustainable value that the market hasn't corrected.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Home Runs all games?
Freeman averages 0.18 home runs per game against typical lines of 0.55, creating a massive -0.37 differential. This 67% gap between production and expectations drives the exceptional under value in his home run props.
How reliable is this trend?
Freeman's home run unders provide value in all situations, but target games at Dodger Stadium where dimensions favor his evolved contact approach. Avoid betting during rare hot streaks, though his current profile makes extended over runs unlikely.