Freddie Freeman has been ice cold at the plate, going under his hits prop in 8 of 10 games with a brutal 20.0% over rate. The veteran first baseman is averaging just 0.8 hits against a 1.5 line, creating a -0.7 differential that screams value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's recent struggles represent a dramatic departure from his career norms, suggesting either a mechanical issue or unlucky variance that could persist short-term. The 0.8 hits average against a 1.5 line creates substantial mathematical value, but the key question is whether this represents genuine decline or negative regression. At 34 years old, Freeman's bat speed and timing could be showing age-related decline, particularly late in a grueling season. The longest under streak of 6 games indicates books may be slow to adjust lines downward, creating continued value. However, Freeman's track record suggests this cold spell is unsustainable long-term. The 2-game current under streak pales compared to the 6-game stretch, indicating some volatility within the broader trend. Most concerning is the complete lack of multi-hit games during this stretch, suggesting Freeman isn't just missing the over narrowly but failing to generate consistent contact. The timing coincides with September baseball when veteran players often show fatigue, but Freeman's playoff experience typically keeps him locked in during crucial stretches.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's 0.8 hits average creates clear mathematical value against the 1.5 line, and the 8-2 under record suggests books haven't fully adjusted. The risk lies in positive regression for a proven hitter, but late-season fatigue and the persistent nature of this slump favor continued struggles. Target games where Freeman faces quality pitching to maximize edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Hits prop record last 10 games?
Freeman has gone 2-8-0 over/under on his hits props in the last 10 games, hitting the over just 20.0% of the time. This represents a significant departure from typical expectations for a player of his caliber and creates clear value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Hits last 10 games?
Lean under on Freeman's hits props based on his 0.8 average against the 1.5 line and 8-2 under record. The mathematical edge is substantial, though be cautious of potential positive regression for this proven veteran hitter.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Hits last 10 games?
Freeman is averaging just 0.8 hits over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.5 line, creating a -0.7 differential. This represents significant underperformance and suggests continued value on under bets until lines adjust downward.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman under bets when he faces quality starting pitching or in day games after night games. Avoid betting when he's facing struggling pitchers or in favorable hitting environments, as positive regression becomes more likely.