Freddie Freeman's road hitting struggles present a compelling under opportunity, with just 33.3% overs (15-30) and a -0.4 differential versus the typical line. The veteran first baseman averages only 1.09 hits away from Dodger Stadium compared to his 1.46 line. Strong lean under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Freeman's road hitting decline represents a significant departure from his career norms, suggesting deeper mechanical or environmental factors at play. The 67% under rate across 45 road games indicates this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern tied to away conditions. Freeman's career .294 road average typically translates to 1.2-1.4 hits per game, making the 1.09 road average particularly concerning. The -36.4% ROI on overs demonstrates books haven't fully adjusted lines to reflect this road struggle, creating sustainable value on unders. Freeman's age-34 season may be showing signs of reduced adaptability to different ballparks, opposing crowds, and travel fatigue that younger players handle better. The eight-game under streak within this sample suggests the trend has momentum, though regression remains possible given Freeman's proven track record. Road hitting struggles often stem from timing disruption, unfamiliar sight lines, and the mental challenge of hostile environments - factors that tend to persist rather than correct mid-season. The consistency of this underperformance across different road venues strengthens the case that this reflects Freeman's current capabilities rather than ballpark-specific issues.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Freeman's road hitting has been consistently subpar with a clear 0.4-hit deficit versus typical lines, creating ongoing value on unders. The 67% under rate suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his away struggles. Primary risk is regression to career norms, but the sample size and consistency support continued road underperformance through season's end.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 3.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Freddie Freeman's Hits prop record away games?
Freeman's road hits record is 15-30 (33.3% overs) across 45 games, averaging 1.09 hits versus a typical 1.46 line. The under rate of 67% with +27.3% ROI demonstrates consistent road underperformance throughout the 2024 season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Freddie Freeman Hits away games?
Bet under on Freeman's road hits props. His 1.09 average is 0.4 hits below typical lines, with unders hitting 67% of the time. The persistent road struggles and positive under ROI create sustainable betting value.
What's Freddie Freeman's average Hits away games?
Freeman averages 1.09 hits in away games, significantly below his typical 1.46 line for a -0.4 differential. This represents a meaningful decline from his career road norms and creates consistent value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Freeman hits unders specifically in road games where he's shown persistent struggles. Avoid when he faces weak pitching or pitcher-friendly parks that might inflate his line, but standard road conditions favor the under trend.