Francisco Lindor's total bases prop in away games presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 39.0% of overs across 41 games with a -0.2 differential from the typical 2.23 line. The 16-25-0 record and +16.4% under ROI signal consistent value on the downside.
Expert Analysis
Lindor's road struggles with total bases stem from multiple converging factors that create systematic underperformance. The 39.0% over rate across 41 away games isn't a small sample fluke—it represents a fundamental shift in his offensive profile when playing outside Citi Field. His 2.0 average falls consistently short of the 2.23 line books typically set, creating a meaningful 0.23 base edge on unders. The recent streak pattern tells a story of volatility, with his longest under streak reaching five games compared to just two consecutive overs. This suggests that when Lindor struggles on the road, the struggles compound rather than self-correct quickly. Road environments traditionally challenge hitters through unfamiliar sight lines, different mound heights, and hostile crowds, but Lindor's case appears more pronounced than typical home/road splits would suggest. The -25.5% ROI on overs indicates books haven't fully adjusted their lines to reflect his road limitations, while the +16.4% under ROI demonstrates consistent profit potential. Without recent form data to suggest a turnaround, the underlying trend appears intact and exploitable.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Lindor's 61% under rate in away games creates a sustainable edge when books set lines around 2.23 total bases. The ideal spots are mid-week road games against quality pitching where his struggles compound. Main risk is a hot streak breaking the pattern, but the 41-game sample suggests this is Lindor's true road level rather than extended variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 8.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Francisco Lindor's Total Bases prop record away games?
Francisco Lindor's total bases prop record in away games stands at 16-25-0 over/under (39.0% overs) across 41 games from July 2023 through September 2024, showing consistent underperformance against posted lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Francisco Lindor Total Bases away games?
Bet under on Francisco Lindor's total bases in away games. The 61% under rate and +16.4% ROI on unders creates clear value, especially when lines are set at 2.2 or higher total bases.
What's Francisco Lindor's average Total Bases away games?
Francisco Lindor averages 2.0 total bases in away games, which runs 0.23 bases below the typical 2.23 line that sportsbooks set. This consistent differential creates the foundation for profitable under betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Francisco Lindor total bases unders during road series against above-average pitching staffs and in mid-week games where his struggles historically compound. Avoid when he's facing weak bullpens or in hitter-friendly parks.