Francisco Alvarez's home run prop presents a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 16.7% of overs across 24 home games with a brutal 4-20-0 record. His 0.17 average sits 0.3 runs below the typical 0.5 line, generating +59.1% ROI on unders. The data strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
Francisco Alvarez's home run struggles at Citi Field reveal a young catcher still developing his power stroke in the majors. The 0.17 home run average represents legitimate offensive limitations rather than variance, particularly concerning given Citi Field's pitcher-friendly dimensions that suppress power numbers. His 4-20-0 record indicates books haven't properly adjusted lines downward, creating consistent value on unders. The 9-game under streak within this sample demonstrates how rarely Alvarez connects for home runs at home, suggesting mechanical or approach issues that persist in familiar surroundings. Young catchers often show delayed power development due to the physical demands of their position, and Alvarez's defensive responsibilities may be affecting his offensive consistency. The -68.2% over ROI represents one of the worst home run prop performances in recent memory, while the corresponding +59.1% under ROI shows sustainable profit potential. Without significant swing changes or increased playing time in favorable matchups, this trend appears likely to continue given the fundamental factors driving his power suppression at home.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Francisco Alvarez's 16.7% over rate and 0.17 home run average create exceptional under value, particularly when books set lines at 0.5. The combination of Citi Field's pitcher-friendly environment and Alvarez's developing power makes unders the clear play. Risk exists if he faces particularly weak pitching or gets hot, but the 24-game sample size and consistent underperformance suggest this edge remains robust.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-04 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-28 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-25 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Francisco Alvarez's Home Runs prop record home games?
Francisco Alvarez has gone 4-20-0 on home run overs in home games, hitting just 16.7% of his over props. This represents one of the worst home run prop records among regular players, with 20 unders in 24 total games creating exceptional under value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Francisco Alvarez Home Runs home games?
Bet under on Francisco Alvarez home runs at home games. His 0.17 average sits well below typical 0.5 lines, and the 4-20-0 record with +59.1% under ROI makes this one of the strongest under trends in baseball props currently available.
What's Francisco Alvarez's average Home Runs home games?
Francisco Alvarez averages 0.17 home runs per game at home, sitting 0.3 runs below the standard 0.5 line. This significant gap between his actual production and betting lines creates consistent value, particularly given Citi Field's power-suppressing characteristics.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Alvarez home run unders consistently at home, especially when lines are set at 0.5 or higher. The trend shows remarkable consistency across the 24-game sample, making any home game at Citi Field an ideal spot to target this under.