Fernando Tatis Jr.'s total bases prop has been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% of overs across his last 10 games with a devastating -61.8% ROI on overs. His 2.5 average sits 1.1 bases below typical lines, creating consistent value on the under with +52.7% returns.
Expert Analysis
The Fernando Tatis Jr. total bases collapse tells a story of a superstar hitting a prolonged rough patch that oddsmakers have been slow to adjust for. His 2.5 average over this 10-game stretch represents a massive 30.6% decline from the 3.6 lines he's typically seeing, suggesting books are still pricing him based on his elite reputation rather than current form. The 6-game under streak within this sample indicates this isn't random variance but a sustained performance dip that's persisted across different opponents and situations. What makes this trend particularly reliable is the consistency - Tatis Jr. has managed just two total bases games that exceeded his typical line, and even those barely cleared the number. The -1.1 differential is substantial in baseball props, where margins are typically razor-thin. This level of underperformance from a player of Tatis Jr.'s caliber often represents either injury concerns, mechanical issues, or simply a cold streak that takes time to work through. The fact that his longest over streak maxed out at just one game while unders ran for six straight games shows the depth of this slump. Regression is always possible with elite talent, but the sample size and consistency suggest this trend has more runway, especially if underlying issues haven't been fully addressed.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 20% over rate and massive -1.1 differential create clear value on Fernando Tatis Jr. total bases unders, particularly when lines remain inflated above 3.0. Target spots where books haven't fully adjusted for his current form. Main risk is sudden regression to his elite baseline, but the 6-game under streak suggests deeper issues than simple variance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 7.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-19 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Total Bases Prop Lines
Compare Fernando Tatis Jr. props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone 2-8-0 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% with an average of 2.5 total bases compared to typical lines around 3.6, creating a massive -1.1 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Fernando Tatis Jr. Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the under on Fernando Tatis Jr. total bases props. The 20% over rate and +52.7% ROI on unders over 10 games creates clear value, especially when lines remain above 3.0 based on his reputation.
What's Fernando Tatis Jr.'s average Total Bases last 10 games?
Fernando Tatis Jr. has averaged 2.5 total bases over his last 10 games, sitting 1.1 bases below the typical 3.6 line he sees. This 30.6% performance decline represents significant value on under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Fernando Tatis Jr. total bases unders when lines are 3.0 or higher, indicating books haven't fully adjusted for his current form. Avoid when lines drop below 2.5, suggesting oddsmakers have caught up to the trend.