Eugenio Suárez has been a total bases disaster over his last 10 games, hitting the over just twice (20.0%) while averaging 1.9 total bases against typical 3.5 lines. The -1.6 differential and devastating -61.8% over ROI create a compelling under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Suárez's total bases collapse stems from a fundamental power outage that's plagued his final stretch of 2024. The veteran third baseman managed just two multi-hit games in this 10-game sample, with his extra-base hit production virtually non-existent. This isn't just bad luck—Suárez's approach has shifted toward contact over power, resulting in more singles and strikeouts rather than the doubles and home runs that drive total bases props over. The 1.9 average represents a significant departure from his career norms, suggesting either mechanical issues or age-related decline in bat speed. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency of this trend, with Suárez recording six consecutive unders at one point. The -61.8% over ROI isn't just poor—it's historically bad for a player of his caliber. While regression is always possible, the underlying metrics suggest this represents a real shift in offensive profile rather than temporary variance. The 52.7% under ROI validates what the eye test confirms: Suárez simply isn't generating the type of hard contact necessary to consistently exceed inflated total bases lines that assume his previous power output.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Suárez's 20.0% over rate and -1.6 average differential create exceptional under value, particularly when books haven't fully adjusted lines to reflect his power decline. Target this trend when total bases lines remain at 3.0 or higher, as Suárez's current offensive profile suggests 2-2.5 is his realistic ceiling. The primary risk is a sudden power surge, but his consistent struggles indicate this trend has staying power.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 6.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-25 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-21 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Eugenio Suárez's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
Suárez went 2-8-0 over/under on total bases props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of overs. He averaged 1.9 total bases against typical 3.5 lines, creating a massive -1.6 differential that devastated over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Eugenio Suárez Total Bases last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Suárez's 20.0% over rate and -61.8% over ROI create exceptional value on unders. His power has completely disappeared, making inflated total bases lines virtually impossible to reach consistently.
What's Eugenio Suárez's average Total Bases last 10 games?
Suárez averaged just 1.9 total bases over his last 10 games, a full 1.6 bases below typical 3.5 lines. This represents a dramatic power decline that's created consistent under value for sharp bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Suárez total bases unders when lines remain at 3.0 or higher, as books have been slow to adjust. His current offensive profile suggests 2.5 is his realistic ceiling, making any line above that profitable under territory.