Edouard Julien's home run props present one of the sharpest under bets in baseball, with a staggering 2-52-0 record (3.7% overs) and -92.9% ROI on overs. The Twins second baseman averages just 0.07 home runs per game against a standard 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.4 differential that screams systematic under value.
Expert Analysis
Edouard Julien's power profile reveals a fundamental mismatch with standard home run pricing. His 0.07 home runs per game average suggests books are overestimating his pop by 600-700%, likely influenced by his solid plate discipline metrics rather than actual power output. The 35-game under streak isn't fluky variance—it reflects Julien's true talent level as a contact-oriented second baseman who rarely elevates for power. His swing mechanics favor line drives over launch angle optimization, and Minnesota's spacious Target Field dimensions further suppress his already limited power ceiling. The consistency of this trend across 54 games spanning multiple seasons indicates this isn't a temporary slump but rather his established power baseline. Regression concerns are minimal given the sample size and underlying skills profile. Julien's value comes from his ability to get on base and play solid defense, not from clearing fences. Books continue setting the line at 0.5 because recreational bettors gravitate toward round numbers and overweight small sample hot streaks, but the fundamental power deficit remains unchanged. Weather, matchups, and park factors become secondary when dealing with such limited raw power, making this one of the most reliable under bets available.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Edouard Julien's home run props offer exceptional value with a 96.3% under hit rate and +83.8% ROI. His true power output sits dramatically below the standard 0.5 line, creating systematic mispricing. Bet the under in any conditions, as his limited power ceiling makes external factors largely irrelevant. The primary risk is an unusually favorable wind or pitcher mistake, but even then, Julien rarely squares up balls with authority.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-31 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-23 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Edouard Julien's Home Runs prop record all games?
Edouard Julien's home run props show a 2-52-0 record across all games, hitting the over just 3.7% of the time. This represents one of the most lopsided prop records in baseball, with 52 unders in 54 total games tracked.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Edouard Julien Home Runs all games?
Bet the under on Edouard Julien's home run props with high confidence. His 96.3% under rate and +83.8% ROI make this one of the sharpest bets available, as books consistently overprice his limited power output.
What's Edouard Julien's average Home Runs all games?
Edouard Julien averages 0.07 home runs per game compared to the typical 0.5 line, creating a massive -0.4 differential. This means he's hitting home runs at roughly one-seventh the rate books are pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Edouard Julien home run unders in any conditions given his consistent lack of power. The 35-game under streak shows external factors matter little when dealing with such limited raw power output and contact-oriented approach.