Davis Schneider's total bases prop shows clear under value at home, hitting just 44.4% overs across 18 games with a concerning -0.2 differential from his typical line. The 6.1% ROI on unders combined with his 1.39 average suggests consistent line inflation. Lean under on Schneider's total bases in Toronto.
Expert Analysis
Davis Schneider's home total bases performance reveals a significant market inefficiency that sharp bettors should exploit. His 1.39 average falls meaningfully short of the typical 1.56 line, creating a substantial 0.17-base gap that translates directly to betting value. This differential isn't marginal variance—it represents a fundamental disconnect between oddsmakers' expectations and Schneider's actual production at Rogers Centre. The 44.4% over rate across 18 home games demonstrates consistency in underperformance, while the positive 6.1% ROI on unders confirms this trend's profitability. What makes this particularly compelling is the balance in his streak patterns, with both his longest over and under runs reaching four games, suggesting the market hasn't overcorrected in either direction. The sample size of 18 games provides sufficient data for confidence while avoiding the noise of smaller samples. Schneider's struggles at home likely stem from familiar surroundings creating pressing situations or specific ballpark factors that don't favor his hitting approach. The -15.2% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning against backing the over, while the under's profitability suggests this trend has staying power rather than being a temporary regression candidate.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Schneider's consistent underperformance at home, averaging 1.39 total bases against a 1.56 line, creates clear value on the under. The 6.1% ROI on unders over 18 games demonstrates sustainable profit potential. Target this when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, as the 0.17-base differential provides excellent cushion. Main risk is sample size regression, but the consistency of underperformance suggests this edge remains viable.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-06-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-06-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-05-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-05-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-04-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-04-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-14 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-11 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Davis Schneider's Total Bases prop record home games?
Davis Schneider's total bases prop record in home games stands at 8-10-0 over/under, hitting just 44.4% overs across 18 games. This translates to a disappointing -15.2% ROI for over bettors while under backers enjoy a profitable 6.1% return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Davis Schneider Total Bases home games?
Bet under on Davis Schneider's total bases in home games. His 1.39 average falls significantly short of typical 1.56 lines, creating consistent value on the under. The 6.1% ROI on unders over 18 games confirms this edge's profitability and sustainability.
What's Davis Schneider's average Total Bases home games?
Davis Schneider averages 1.39 total bases in home games, falling 0.17 bases short of his typical 1.56 line. This meaningful differential creates the foundation for profitable under betting, as he consistently fails to reach market expectations at Rogers Centre.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Schneider's total bases unders when the line sits at 1.5 or higher, maximizing the value from his 0.17-base deficit. Avoid betting after extended under streaks of 3+ games, as variance correction becomes more likely despite the underlying trend's strength.