David Hamilton's total bases prop shows clear under value with just 46.7% overs across 30 games. Averaging 1.73 total bases against a 2.23 line creates a substantial -0.5 differential that has delivered +1.8% ROI on unders. The data strongly favors betting Hamilton's total bases under.
Expert Analysis
Hamilton's total bases trend reveals a consistent pattern of underperformance that extends beyond simple variance. His 1.73 average against a 2.23 line represents a meaningful 22% gap that suggests either market inefficiency or fundamental limitations in his offensive profile. The 14-16 over/under split with negative ROI on overs (-10.9%) indicates this isn't random fluctuation but rather reflects Hamilton's role as a contact-oriented player who lacks the power metrics to consistently exceed inflated lines. His current three-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, though the equal three-game over and under streaks suggest some volatility exists. The key concern is whether this 30-game sample captures Hamilton's true baseline or if recent struggles are masking improvement potential. However, the consistency of the underperformance across the entire sample period, combined with the significant average differential, suggests this trend has staying power. Hamilton's profile as a utility infielder often means inconsistent playing time and situational usage that can limit his opportunities for multiple-hit games needed to clear higher total bases lines.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.5 average differential provides genuine edge, but the limited sample size and equal streak lengths prevent high conviction. Target Hamilton total bases unders when lines are set at 2.0 or higher, as his 1.73 average creates maximum value. Primary risk is potential role expansion or lineup improvement that could boost his offensive opportunities and invalidate this trend.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-26 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-12 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-06 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-04 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-07-27 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-07-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is David Hamilton's Total Bases prop record all games?
Hamilton's total bases prop record stands at 14-16 over/under across 30 games, hitting just 46.7% overs. This translates to a -10.9% ROI on over bets while under bets generated +1.8% returns, showing clear under bias.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on David Hamilton Total Bases all games?
Bet Hamilton's total bases under, particularly when lines are set at 2.0 or higher. His 1.73 average creates significant value against typical 2.23 lines, with under bets showing positive ROI compared to losing over investments.
What's David Hamilton's average Total Bases all games?
Hamilton averages 1.73 total bases per game across his 30-game sample. This sits 0.5 bases below the standard 2.23 line, creating a meaningful 22% gap that consistently favors under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hamilton total bases unders when lines reach 2.0 or above, maximizing the value from his 1.73 average. Avoid betting during hot streaks or when he's batting higher in the lineup with increased RBI opportunities.