David Fry's total bases prop shows a dead-even 5-5 split over his last 10 games, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. Averaging just 1.8 total bases against a 2.4 line creates a significant -0.6 differential that favors the under despite the balanced record.
Expert Analysis
The surface-level 50% over rate masks David Fry's consistent underperformance relative to oddsmaker expectations. His 1.8 average total bases falls 25% below the typical 2.4 line, indicating either inflated market pricing or a sustained downturn in offensive production. This differential is substantial enough to overcome the even record split, as Fry has been consistently falling short of market expectations even when hitting overs. The current streak of one under suggests recent momentum aligning with the underlying data trend. Without additional context on matchup quality, park factors, or lineup position changes, the raw performance gap becomes the primary indicator. The 4.5% negative ROI on both sides reflects the market's struggle to properly price Fry's props, but the consistent underperformance against the line suggests systematic mispricing favoring unders. Cleveland's offensive approach and Fry's role as a complementary player likely contribute to this pattern, where he provides steady contact without the power upside that inflates total bases props. The three-game under streak earlier in this sample indicates this isn't just random variance but a measurable trend in his offensive output.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.6 differential between Fry's 1.8 average and the 2.4 line represents genuine value despite the even record split. Target unders when the line sits at 2.5 or higher, as Fry's contact-oriented approach limits explosive total bases performances. Main risk is a breakout game skewing the small sample, but the consistent underperformance suggests sustainable edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-16 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-08-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-08-09 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is David Fry's Total Bases prop record last 10 games?
David Fry has gone 5-5 on total bases overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. However, his 1.8 average total bases significantly trails the typical 2.4 line, creating a meaningful performance gap despite the balanced record.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on David Fry Total Bases last 10 games?
Lean under on David Fry's total bases props. His 1.8 average falls 0.6 bases below typical lines, indicating consistent underperformance. The even 5-5 record is misleading when his actual production consistently trails market expectations by 25%.
What's David Fry's average Total Bases last 10 games?
David Fry has averaged 1.8 total bases over his last 10 games compared to the standard 2.4 line. This -0.6 differential represents a 25% shortfall from market expectations, suggesting either inflated pricing or sustained offensive decline.
How reliable is this trend?
Target David Fry total bases unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, maximizing the value from his consistent underperformance. Avoid betting during potential breakout spots against weak pitching, as his limited sample size creates volatility risk.